thirdwave

Github Mirror

Week 20

Seperate vid talks about problems with long-distance electricity transmission, and the ill-fated DESERTEC plan. All of the issues raised there are moot for H2 pipelines which can transmit ten times more energy at one eighth the cost compared to the grid.

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Limitations of the grid #h2book

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Hear hear #lion #h2book

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Forbes: "Perovskite is found in Earth's mantle has been mined in Arkansas, the Urals, Switzerland, Sweden, and Germany"

Perovskite can do better solar #h2book

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"[A]mbient air pollution kills more than 4 million people every year twice as many as Covid-19 killed in 2020, and twice as many as are killed every year by malaria and tuberculosis combined" #h2book

Three billion animals died during Oz wildfires? #h2book

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Alvera is the CEO of Snam. Shared one vid of him previously talking about their H2 pipeline work.

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Alvera book talks about only parts of econ being electrified. Those parts will likely be gasified too eventually.. The base tech that can do all, will end up doing all #h2book

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NH3 is still useful as energy vector, it can be combusted in a turbine (Japan Mitsubishi has the tech), used for carrier for other kinds of fuel-cells.

That must be why ammonia company GenCell tout alkaline fuel-cells, the tech works even with non high-purity H2, as opposed to PEM which needs high-purity.

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Looking at the PE presentation again; they are especially focused on compression, bcz apparently getting high-purity H2 is easiest that way. Ammonia can carry huge amounts of H2, but getting high purity is tough. From pg 10,

PDF

Video: Provaris CEO: 'it's very clear Europe has 10 million tons of demand [for H2] by 2030'.

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BTW the heating energy calc here actually takes energy used for cooling into account, indirectly; It calculates the energy needed to raise (the average world temperature) from 13 to (room temperature) 22. Well, there are many temp levels during the year that contribute to that average. Sometimes it is -20, sometimes 10, or 30. So by calculating 13->22 switch, we are also calculating 40 to 22, for some places.

The Guardian: "But air conditioning and refrigeration are doubly polluting: not only are they produced from climate-warming fossil fuels, but the HFCs and other refrigerants cooling systems use produce greenhouse gases that can be 4,000 times more potent than carbon dioxide"

"@Zachary

@CFTCbehnam urged digital asset firms to disclose their energy footprint. He said the industry’s economic output might not be worth the wattage"

New Deal - Deep Sun #music

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It isn't, bcz there is a clear beginning of the snowball. With the chicken-and-egg "connondrum" as well there is a beginning; There was something like a chicken which laid something that looked like an egg, that started the process. Gov policy gives the push, starts the snowball, more eggs.

"The demand-supply-more demand you described sounds like a chicken-and-egg process / problem"

Charly Antolini's Power Dozen - Nofretete's Headache #music

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Klement Julienne - Mannix #music

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JP does good things on H2 though, kudos there

Overwork, Japan - all that overtime doesn't seem to help productivity?

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Mr. Scruff - Champion Nibble #music

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Walmart, Target stocks were hit especially bad maybe bcz if during high inflation era value, 'substance' will matter more, and WMT, TGT would be safe-havens for that kind of buy, when they missed their earnings, value seekers were shocked. Nosedive.

H2 View: "The much anticipated, REPowerEU Plan has been presented by the European Commission, and has set a target of 10 million tonnes of domestic renewable hydrogen by 2030"

H2 View: "Cummins partners with Freightliner on hydrogen fuel-cell truck.. The Freightliner Cascadia chassis will be equipped with fourth generation equipment from Cummins... [The companies] have announced that they will be working together on a new hydrogen fuel-cell truck that is intended for the North American market"

It is great Europe is creating the demand upfront, that can spur companies to get their tech in order; Provaris CEO attended an H2 conf and says the demand from EU is there, they want tons of this stuff. Where there is demand, there will be supply.. so PE is building tech for it. Enter the snowball effect; seeing supply, products will arrive, which will create more supply. Only policy could start that chain, bidness could not do it on its own.

Suiso ship used low temperature. The GH2 ship uses compression. The AU company that built it is Provaris Energy. Presentation on the tech and planned infra below. First ship is 26,000 m3 another planned 120,000 m3, compressed H2 at 250 bar can carry 700 kwh/m3 which means one trip will carry 84.0 Gigawatt-hours, that is mid-size crude oil tanker equivalent. Very good.

PDF

H2 View: "Offshore green hydrogen production unit unveiled.. Technip Energies and its affiliates, Kanfa and Inocean announced the launch of its suite of offshore green hydrogen production solutions, GO.H2 TM by T.EN"

H2 View: "A new ship that will collect ocean plastic and produce hydrogen to be designed.. H2 Industries and naval architecture company, TECHNOLOG Services have revealed a partnership to design a ship that will collect plastic waste and convert it into hydrogen"

This means LH2 storage does not require extra energy..? That's smart.

"Suiso Frontier (hydrogen tanker) is a custom-built vessel with double-shell vacuum insulation that enables liquid hydrogen to be transported without any coolant"

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Can work backwards from capacity to output. LNG replacement? Get ship capacity, number of trips, or simply an annual export amount giving a Gwh, now work backwards from there, divide by 365, then 24 - once we have calc down to Watt-hour within an hour, we can drop the hour, get Wattage.

Converting energy numbers to a Wattage (kilo,giga) as in power input / output helps to gauge how much of a power need can be met by existing sources, and compare sources with eachother, no matter how long that power would be needed (which takes us into Watt-hour, storage capacity territory). A TV pulls in 60 Watts, an oven 1500 W. Russian NG export to Europe is 167 Gigawatts (a lot of TVs can run on that energy). Typical nuclear plant output is 1 GW, Fukushima (the one with the meltdown) was 5 GW. Then it takes 33 Fukushimas to replace Russian exports to Europe. Now in terms of environment policy that is probably a non-starter.

"@christo92787346

I can't wait for Raytheon baby formula with laser targeted nutrition"

AP: "Biden invokes Defense Production Act to boost baby formula production, authorizes flights to bring imports from overseas"

How to get the code referenced here? If there is an import for a library, but it is not an official Python lib, its .py file will be under that year's archive. Script yf.py is under en/mbl/2022 folder.

If people's buying patterns truly changed, and -per WSJ supply chain docu- there is about a year's worth of journey behind every product even though the last-mile delivery of the product looks instantenous, then changes on demand could manifest itself as supply chain problems. And covid also effected the production itself.

Saw Target CEO on CNBC, his main complaint was 'supply chain supply chain supply chain'

Their stocks were hammered. 

import yf
fig, axes = plt.subplots(2, 1, figsize=(6, 4), sharey=True)
df = yf.get_stock_price('WMT')
df.plot(ax=axes[0],legend=False,sharex = True,title='WMT')
df = yf.get_stock_price('TGT')
df.plot(ax=axes[1],legend=False,title='TGT')

Doh!

import yf;yf.get_earnings("WMT").head(4)[['startdatetime','epsestimate','epsactual']]

Out[1]: 
              startdatetime  epsestimate  epsactual
0  2023-02-21T07:00:00.000Z          NaN        NaN
1  2022-11-15T07:00:00.000Z          NaN        NaN
2  2022-08-16T07:00:00.000Z         1.88        NaN
3  2022-05-17T07:02:00.000Z         1.48        1.3

Real was 1.3 vs estimate 1.48 for Walmart.

Both Target and Walmart had a miss on earnings.

He admitted it #Iraq #W #empire

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There will be more shrinkage I bet. Still meddly meddly, messing stuff up all over the place. Leave Asia Minor alone

"The incredible shrinking Global Britain.. Funding cuts and staffing turmoil at the Foreign Office are scaling back the UK’s international ambition"

CNBC: "India is not alone. In addition to Russia and Ukraine, Egypt, Kazakhstan, Kosovo and Serbia have also banned wheat exports"

H2 Fuel News: "LONGi Hydrogen, a startup that is only a year old, has won the largest green hydrogen project in the world for the supply of renewable H2 at scale... The Sinopec Green Hydrogen Demonstration Project will require the company to supply ALK electrolysis equipment at the largest scale in the world...

The total investment into this China energy deal will be as high as $442,021,500 (RMB 3 billion) for the construction of a new 300 MW photovoltaic power plant as well as an electrolytic water hydrogen production plant for the generation of 618 million kWh of renewable electricity and 20,000 tons of renewable H2 per year"

CNBC: "Toyota Motor Europe, CaetanoBus and Air Liquide have signed an agreement related to the development of hydrogen-based transport options, as the race to develop low and zero-emission vehicles heats up"

H2 View: "Rystad Energy anticipate green hydrogen boom in Egypt.. According to a Rystad Energy report, the Egyptian Government is set to release a $40bn national hydrogen plan in the coming months, to attract foreign investment"

H2 View: "Europe’s first cross-border hydrogen networks to be developed across Belgium and the Netherlands"

H2 View: "Mobile hydrogen fuelling unit could see prices as low as €1/kg.. Danish company, Everfuel launched its mobile hydrogen refuelling unit, the ‘Everfiller’, today (May 18), which could see hydrogen as cheap as €1 ($1.05) per kilogram"

H2 Fuel News: "Raven SR expands waste-to-hydrogen technology into Australia with partnership"

H2 View: "Thyssenkrupp expands to Australia to supply its gigawatt-scale hydrogen production technology"

H2 View: "Air Liquide, CaetonaBus and Toyota Motor Europe have joined forces with the aim of developing ‘integrated hydrogen solutions’, to accelerate the expansion of hydrogen mobility in Europe"

H2 View: "Plans ramp up to turn Saskatchewan, Canada, into a hydrogen hub"

H2 View: "DNV [has] plans to evaluate blending hydrogen in [Czech Republic] natural gas pipeline. Working in conjunction with NET4GAS, DNV will evaluate the hydrogen suitability of an existing DN 1400 pressure natural gas transmission pipeline and related stations"

H2 View: "Plastic Omnium revealed that it has established a partnership with Hyliko, a mobility company that specialises in integrating hydrogen storage systems into heavy-vehicle fleets... [T]he partners are also planning to develop new hydrogen storage systems together, which will increase truck ranges by nearly 60% to over 750km (403 miles)"

H2 Fuel News: "Automotive and energy company, First Hydrogen, have announced that its first hydrogen-powered light commercial vehicles (LCV) is set to begin operational testing next month"

Simply dehydrating blended fruit gives 'fruit leather'. 6-12 hrs at 60 degrees. Done. Portable fruit, it wont go bad for a long time.

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CNBC: "Investors withdraw over $7 billion from tether, raising fresh fears about stablecoin's backing"

"@BW

Tech’s high-flying startup scene gets a crushing reality check. Job cuts and a sour investment climate are hitting big companies like Stripe and Instacart, and may slam smaller ones as damage spreads"

Econ structure is a convoluted mess. Credit is given to companies who use it to pay salaries to people. To increase salaries you have increase credit. But there is no assurance that credit will go to salaries, it can end up in the stock market. If money does go to salaries, in excess, this can cause inflation which decreases the benefit of that increase 🤦‍♂️ Also too much wage increase can hurt company bottom line, then biz has to cut costs, fire people - now you have no salary.

There is nothing special about creating a "bidness". No need to label these ppl as linchpins of society. Too much pressure, plus, they r not able to carry such heavy social function.

Money system: new money is given as credit to business, who in turn give (some) of that money to people as employees. Money reaches regular people through employment. That creates too much dependency on biz, also gives them too much power.

The direction of money flow needs to turn upside down; people get the money first, and maybe, businesses get credit down the line. Growth should not be the primary goal, nor full employment. Right now both of these issues command an overriding attention because, well, people's livelihood depend on them.

Defense Priorities: "U.S. military bases and logistics hubs in and near the Middle East.. make foolish wars too easy to start. Maintaining the ability to use rapid military force in the region has become an end unto itself, unmoored from any clear vital strategic interest"

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Recently US seems to prefer creating chaos to balance this or that force in foreign lands; due to (some) political restrictions around acting as global cop. It is the worst of both worlds, 'meddly US and chaos'. Jihadi m-f-kers trained and sent to Syria that later blow shit up in Africa. Help Saddam, so he attacks Iran, then he attacks Kuwait, shit - now he is bad, kill Saddam.

The Spectator World: "‘America or chaos’ is a false choice.. There is an age-old dogma in the US foreign policy establishment: when America pulls back, chaos ensues. Like an anti-inflammatory that keeps arthritis under control, Washington’s presence in this or that region keeps enemies cowed, partners reassured, and the barbarians at the gates"

"@VALERIEinNYT

After weeks of trying to hammer out a peace deal, negotiators for Russia + Ukraine appear further apart than at any other point in nearly 3 mos of war"

Politico: "We’re not all Ukrainians now.. Insisting that the United States and its NATO allies should want exactly what Ukraine does is understandable politics — but it’s also dangerous policy.. Such insistence not only risks dragging us potentially into a nuclear war, it also risks giving Ukraine false hope and delaying a settlement. And our natural sympathy for Ukraine shouldn’t be confused for fully aligned interests"

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H2 View: "HH2E raises funds to support hydrogen pipeline in Germany worth €500m"

H2 View: "GenCell partners with RedHawk Energy to deliver hydrogen fuel cell backup power for US markets"

H2 View: "Pennsylvania Governor, Tom Wolf announced that he intends to streamline the decarbonisation of the industrial sector in the state [through H2]"

H2 can be turned into food! Can fuel machines, can fuel people!

NovoNutrients: "[Our] fermentation platform is powered by patent pending microbes and proprietary bioreactors. The organisms transform emissions, along with hydrogen and oxygen, into complete, safe, natural single cell protein (SCP). This first harvest is then dried and refined to the desired concentration of protein... The result? A new pillar of the food system, decoupled from agriculture and, ultimately, from fossil fuels"

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Energy content, capacity is reported in kilowatt-hour or gigawatt-hour; this is the amount of energy. Gigawatt (wout the hour) is a rate, a flow of sorts; I lift a tons of water up, it has potential stored energy (kwh, gwh). Poke a hole, water will flow out, which has power in kw or gw, flow can turn a wheel, do work. Water can have 2 KWh of (potential) energy, if I poked a hole for 1 kilowatt worth, water runs out in two hours.

If there is fuel amount produced in a certain time period, eg x barrels per day as below, I calculate GWh from that, divide by 24, I get the power. It's easier to compare when all output is brought down to unit time level.

1 barrel of crude oil carries approximately 1700 kwh of energy. An output of 13 million barrels of oil per day translates into,

int(1700*13*1e6/(24*1000*1000))

Out[1]: 920

920 GW, nearly 1 terrawatt of energy output.

"Saudi expects 13 million bpd oil capacity by 2027"

Trying to remember the last movie I saw w Chris Walken.. has to be Last Man Standing along Bruce Willis. BW enters the town, leaves the town - everyone is dead.

They did have a crocodile.. But he was one of the 'good guys' this time; Expectations subverted.

Actually maybe the writing wasn't fantasticaly great, it just wasn't insanely stupid, had a natural flow, things made sense, which nowadays comes across as pure genius.

Eraser: Reborn was a good movie. Good writing, well directed, well acted.

Return-free risk instead of risk-free return.. good one

@gnoble79

.. I remain very bearish. Yes there will be counter trend bear market rallies but stocks will ultimately go MUCH lower. Equities continue to represent RETURN FREE RISK

Bobby Hughes Experience - Sahara 72 #music

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Train in Peru offers oxygen on board because it goes so high in altitude and some might need it. That's a trip

WION: "‘No option’: Poor workers struggle amid India’s brutal heatwave"

CNBC: "Europe drops mask mandate for flights and airports, loosening Covid rules further"

Al Jazeera: "EU gives companies green light to buy gas from Russia.. European companies are starting to move ahead to comply with Russian demands and keep the gas flowing"

Western MSM news cycle has tired of the RU-UKR war.. 'Ew not fun anymore'.. Maybe that will push them to start telling 'both sides' to negotitate.

Lookit - best buddies already

WION: "As India’s wheat export ban causes ripples in global markets, Chinese media backs move"

Russian-Finnish border is 830 mile-long. That is a long-ass border.

WION: "Russia's warning on NATO Nordic expansion: 'They should have no illusions that we will simply put up with it - and nor should Brussels, Washington and other NATO capitals'"

Al Jazeera: "[After Finland] Sweden announces NATO bid, ending its historic neutrality"

If you factor in the 'Latvian Blend' I bet the share is still at %35

"EU imports of Russian oil already dropped to 12% from pre-war 35%"

Top Belarus exports: refined petroleum, fertilizers, food items, trucks, tractors

WION: "Belarusian PM Roman Golovchenko says Western sanctions are blocking exports worth more than $16 billion"

The study confirms the optimal transport capability of H2; we can project that scenario to onshore-onshore as well.. Producing green fuel in North Africa pipelining it into Europe, or within the states of US. See Wires vs Pipes.

Aquaventus: "In all three dimensions examined, offshore electrolysis with pipeline connection emerges as the best approach: According to the study, a pipeline for hydrogen generated offshore can be realized up to five and a half years faster than submarine cable connections for offshore electricity.. In addition, the investment would require up to 6 billion euros less, reducing the production costs for green hydrogen. From a permitting perspective and with a focus on environmental protection, 610 kilometres of pipeline versus 3720 kilometres of high-voltage lines as well as the location of electrolysis on the high seas also mean significant advantages in terms of environmental impact"

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H2 Fuel News: "Siemens Mobility and Deutsche Bahn (DB) have unveiled their latest hydrogen train, called the Mireo Plus H... This Siemens news also included the unveiling of a new H2 storage tank trailer by DB to accommodate mobile refueling. The components the companies have unveiled are designed for the H2goesRail hydrogen train project"

H2 View: "Fortescue Future Industries (FFI) announced that it will evaluate the feasibility of converting a former coal mine into a green hydrogen production facility in Lewis County, Washington, US."

H2 View: "NEOM Green Hydrogen Company’s (NGHC) board announced the appointment of David Edmondson as Chief Executive Officer of the company... Nadhmi Al-Nasr, CEO at NEOM and Chairman of NEOM Green Hydrogen Company, said, 'The appointment of David Edmondson as NGHC’s CEO is a natural follow-up to our recent agreement to build the world’s largest green hydrogen plant, which will produce 1.2 million tonnes of hydrogen per year'"

The Economic Times: "[PIL] Ltd has signed a pact with state-owned GAIL for jointly developing a hydrogen-based ecosystem in India... GAIL is India's largest gas transporting and marketing company. It owns about two-thirds of truck pipelines... PIL owns and operates a 48-inch diameter, 1,480 km long Kakinada to Bharuch gas pipeline that connects major domestic supply hubs on the east to key demand centers in the west. It is a vital link in India's national gas grid"

H2 View: "GAIL (India) Limited has awarded a contract to set up one of the largest Proton Exchange Membrane electrolyser in India, in line with the country’s National Hydrogen Mission."

Recharge: "'Green hydrogen imports will be cheaper than locally produced H2 in Europe from 2024': [non-profit RMI] study"

"@MoroccoWNews

CEO of Spanish energy company Cepsa Maarten Wetselaar has announced plans to build a pipeline to export hydrogen to Morocco"

That's the H2 molecule with two atoms and the bond.. Nice

You're luggage

Nothing can compare to the Ahnuld version

Let's see if this Eraser: Reborn is any good..

Google: "[Our company will license] content from news publishers under the EU Copyright Directive.. [W]e have been negotiating with news publishers to license content under the European Copyright Directive, which EU countries are in the process of implementing into national law... The Directive allows search engines like Google to freely link to, and use 'very short extracts' of press publishers' content. The law also creates new rights for publishers when longer previews of their content are used online"

Inequality measure Gini fall continued for 2021 Q4; could also be due to ultra-rich becoming less ultra-rich, and that's a good thing too..

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Reshare

WION: "1995 UFO sighting in US was actually of celestial bodies, claim astronomers"

People use crypto in retirement plans?

"@Zachary

AARP says it is a 'horrible mistake' to use crypto in retirement plans. 'The last week to 10 days or so proved that point for us.'"

#crypto #mcdonalds

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Bloomberg: "Novogratz, who has championed TerraUSD, saw his fortune nosedive to $2.5 billion, from 8.5 billion in early November."

"@iamtrask

It just occurred to me - if you zoom out enough - working from home is the norm - not the exception.

For a bajillion years people worked in the local vicinity of where they lived. Farming, hunting, and caring for their house and home.

Going to an office to work is weird"

"1/3 or 1/4 of workers are now permanently remote working. That changes consumption patterns. People consume more stuff. Work pattern change is underestimated". #JimBianco

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"40% of the American public has less than a thousand dollars of savings and they rent. Those people are seeing a huge reverse wealth effect because.. they don't own a home they don't have a stock portfolio. Because of the inflationary spurt through 2021 their paycheck bought less and less they had a huge reverse wealth effect. I think now FED policy is now oriented towards those 40 percent they need to get inflation down.. Now we've got the politicians demanding that they raise rates and raise rates aggressively to deal with inflation because that 40 percent is behind" #JimBianco

"'Tightening financial conditions' is euphemism for lower stock prices. FED thinks rate hikes will not cause unemployment but rain in prices" #JimBianco

Huge number. To decrease that, decrease house prices, for that, rates need to rise - which they are now. By 2024 changes will take effect.

"Tenant and owners' equivalent rent comprise 40% of core CPI"

Noble says to look at historical chart of profit margins (income divided by revenue). Checked, yes there was an uptrend, especially after 2000.

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Investor George Noble (Peter Lynch protege):

"There are stocks that are 20/30 times their revenues.. What happens when you buy stock 10 times its revenue? Data shows that stock has 55% of probability of being delisted"

"This is the biggest everything bubble I've seen in my career"

"The only way to kill inflation is to have a recession.. [T]his idea that somehow we're going to have a soft landing.. like a nice airplane coming in.. Not going to happen. Look throughout history it never works that way. We file that one away under the heading of 'stockbroker economics'"

"Cathie Wood blew away billions of people's money. We've seen this movie before. There is nothing new under the Sun. 1999-2000 their names were Wagoner, Kevin Landis, Ryan Jacob, .. same old same old"

"David Portnoy was schooling Warren Buffett [when everything was going up]. Remember [what] he would do, he had a bunch of dice or whatever in one of his cups and he shook it up and depending on the letters that came out that would be the stock that he was buying, and it was going up. I mean, I wanted to shoot myself... Did DP discover the secret of investing? No"

"@TheRealHoarse

Infant formula is a near monopoly. It is an oligopoly. Two main producers. They serve a captive market without real alternatives...

People have no idea how many industries have consolidated down to only a few very large players. The results are anti-competitive. The infant formula shortage isn’t the crisis. The crisis is the country’s willful failure to regulate capitalism. A formula shortage because of one hiccup at one producer is just a symptom.

Voltaire Net: "The appointment of Michael Ratney as new US ambassador to Saudi Arabia has been read by Riyadh as proof of Washington's disinterest in the Saudi monarchy"

Arab News: "India has banned wheat exports that the world was counting on to alleviate supply disruptions sparked by the war in Ukraine, saying that its own food security is threatened by a sudden spike in global prices of the grain"

Davis: "In the modern era of warfare, there are a few key factors that almost always result in victory for the side that best employs them. In this war, Russia has advantages over the Ukraine armed in important categories that will be hard for the UAF to overcome. First is a clear Russian command of the skies. Yes, as many have pointed out, Russia was unable to completely knock out the Ukrainian air defenses, but they have badly degraded them such that Russia is routinely able to fly between 200 to 300 sorties per day.

About a month ago, there was much notoriety that Ukraine had gained the use of 20 fighter jets owing to supply parts provided by the West. Yet there has been no apparent increase in the number of Ukrainian jets attacking Russian positions beyond the five to 10 per day reported earlier in the war. The reason is clear: Russian air defense capabilities remain fully in tact and employ modern S-400 systems that makes any attempt to fly by Ukrainian pilots a likely death sentence. Ukrainian air defenses still exist, but were badly degraded at the start of the war, and continue to be knocked out by Russian attacks. These realities underscore how hard it would be for Ukraine to reverse the momentum in the Donbas"

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Half-admitting I guess border redrawing will happen

Politico: "G7 ‘will never recognize’ redrawn borders in Ukraine"

Wiki: "European Russia is the western and most populated part of Russia, which is geographically situated in Europe. European Russia accounts for about 75% of Russia's total population"

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