thirdwave

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Week 23

Elvis impersonator singing a Nirvana song. WTF dude

The King - Come as you are #music

Link

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

"Susan Rice Blames ‘Foreign Actors’ for Stirring George Floyd Protests: ‘Right Out of the Russian Playbook’"

It's unbelievable how much crit Black Lives Matter slogan gets. It's clear what it is trying to say. I see variations with "All Lives", "White Lives", "Buildings". I guess it's a sign of the slogan's success. But I have to say I do think less of people who play games with this thing.

Who says this was a "working class revolt"? Who gives a shit if it is or isn't. Does it make the response less or more valid? Con is up in arms but clearly something needs to change. So pretty please, with hammer/sickle, macpro, sugar on top... Clean your fucking backyard.

At its height even with the threat of a nuke war Soviets came across, and were, rational. That probably helped avert nuke war more than anything.. If one side does not think the enem is rational, a jackass, they cld take diff steps to prevent something.

No it's not a generational thing... Half-brained dit "narrativizing" where there isn't one. "Imma write this deep thing now, bcz, like, that's how I saw smart people do it".

There's a fine line with these provoc articles. That John Bolton article "To Stop Iranian Bomb, Bomb Iran" might have been palatable-ish bcz the urgency was not as high and everyone knew Mustache was a warmonger. Cotton thing in the middle of this mayhem is a wrong choice, in terms of timing which naturally caused reader backlash. NYT miscalculated. Obviously free to publish whatever eff they want. Cotton is wrong IMO, another matter.

Sounds like a win for protesters

Phones, surveillance, dirtboxes,

Link

"@kareem_carr

I went on a work outing to the movies once. All my white coworkers wanted to sneak food in. I told them we'd get searched. Searched? They had no idea what I was talking about. Halfway through the conversation, we silently realized the issue. They were white and I was black"

7-11%. That makes sense.

"@ProudSocialist

Store owners are speaking out and saying they will no longer call the police because they don’t trust the police to show up without murdering unarmed black people. If that doesn’t wake you up to how racist and broken policing in America is then nothing will"

"@motherboard

The vast majority of the journalists of color on staff at @PhillyInquirer called out sick on Thursday in protest of leadership's decision to run an op-ed earlier this week with the headline 'Buildings Matter, Too.'"

"Japan, Germany and France will this fiscal year begin jointly developing a reusable rocket that can return to Earth after launch.

Reusable rockets are expected to reduce the cost of missions and provide a welcome boost to the space industry. The project also aims to utilize a Japan-Europe framework to reduce the gap between the United States, which is ahead in the practical application of such technology"

"@Greene_DM

We tried the body cameras. We tried the implicit bias training. We tried hiring different officers. We tried police yoga. These things do not stop the killing because they do not change the balance of power"

"@carterforva

Police in California killed an unarmed, kneeling man by shooting him 5 times. At a protest against police brutality.

'SF resident was kneeling when fatally shot by Vallejo police during civil unrest sfchronicle.com'"

Yeah. Someone up the chain dropped the ball here so we still study all of that up in this mot..f..ka.

(2nd US Prez) John Adams: "I must study politics and war that my sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy. My sons ought to study mathematics and philosophy, geography, natural history, naval architecture, navigation, commerce, and agriculture in order to give 201their children a right to study paintings, poetry, music, architecture, statuary, tapestry, and porcelain"

"@sarahcpr

It is so exhausting being everybody’s one black friend right now"

Wasnt sure guy was playing but rest of the thread suggests he might be serious

"@kevinbaker

I don't think you can count on mayors and city councils to do the right thing, so the trick is going to be making them more afraid of protests than they are of cops and cop unions. There's evidence that this is already starting to happen in some cities"

"Russia’s Vladimir Putin endorses policy allowing nuclear retaliation against conventional attack"

"@MplsWard3

Politicians who cross the MPD find slowdowns in their wards. After the first time I cut money from the proposed police budget, I had an uptick in calls taking forever to get a response, and MPD officers telling business owners to call their councilman about why it took so long"

"@claytoncubitt

The government can suddenly turn off CitiBikes in NYC, in case you were wondering why it's still useful to own your own things which aren't connected to an app or the internet"

I've taken to saying made-up bad guy lines from Bond movies with that generic accent... My latest: "Your intransigence is perplexing Mr. Bond".

That could be a good line..

FED is doing your job Congress

"@Greene_DM

The Fed will buy Illinois state debt. Good news. Others should follow"

CPI YoY % change (inflation). Low.

2020-04-01  0.329097

Link

So true... Same goes for internal problems

Friedman: "In geopolitics there is a key measure known as the 'margin of error.' It predicts how much room a country has for making mistakes. The margin of error consists of two parts: the types of danger faced by a nation and the amount of power it possesses. Some countries have very small margins of error. They tend to obsess over the smallest detail of foreign policy, aware that the slightest misstep can be catastrophic. Israel and Palestine do not have massive margins of error, because of their small size and their location. Iceland, on the other hand, has a lot of room for mistakes. It is small but lives in a roomy neighborhood. The United States has a huge margin of error. It is safe in North America and has tremendous power. The United States therefore tends to be careless in how it exercises its power globally. It's not stupid. It simply doesn't need to be more careful—in fact, being more careful could often reduce its efficiency. Like a banker prepared to make bad loans in the expectation that he will do well in the long run, the United States has a policy of making moves that other countries see as reckless. The results would be painful or even devastating for other countries. The United States moves on and flourishes"

Mountains are natural borders. Why do Indians and the Chinese look so different even tho they are neighbors? I believe these peoples were isolated from one another for a long time. It's tough to have interactions, or war over those mountains. CH seems to be trying very hard at that Pangong lake in Ladakh tho.

"The Himalaya mountain range separates China from India. This range spans 1,500 miles throughout five countries"

Lemont Hill's a good guy. That was a great defense Palestine some time ago. I won't forget it ✊

“Fuel cells are the only viable solution for commercial UAV operators who need significant flight time and we will now work closely with our partners who are based in the US, Korea and Japan.

A retrospectively fitted 2.4kW mounted onto a DJI M600PRO frame with a 9L 300Bar hydrogen cylinder, could achieve a flight time of over 80 minutes compared to just 20 minutes with its battery power pack.”

"Sanders unveils proposal for massive overhaul of criminal justice system"

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"Biden's Proposals for Police Reform Include Banning Chokeholds and 'Weapons of War' for Cops"

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"Colorado AG Weiser: I’ll Sue If President Trump Sends In The Military"

This is mental. Good stuff

Dirty Loops - Work Shit Out #music

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Cornell West: "I recall my own experience of protesting in Charlottesville, Virginia, against hundreds of masked, armed Nazis with live ammunition in which the police stepped back and remained still and silent as we were mercilessly attacked. Without the intervention and protection of antifa, some of us would have died. Sister Heather Heyer did die. I believe the attack on any innocent person is wrong, but the focus on the protesters’ assaults on persons or property takes our attention away from the police killing of hundreds of black, poor and working-class people"

Link

This is the shit.. Mix of red pepper, aubergine.. Bosnian style

Yes do it. F#%k history.

"Adolf Hitler house to be 'neutralised', Austria says. The government unveils plans to turn Adolf Hitler's birthplace into a police station"

All this mayhem and Trump fail but I am still ignoring centrist dits

BWP is prob here to stay. Go drastic reformist on top #embed

YEs.. Minority Report cld be an allagory to Broken Window policing

https://prhyde.eu/

"@BCAppelbaum

So far as I can tell, our political leaders are divided between those who say they support the protesters but have no plans to change anything, and those who aren’t bothering to pretend"

"@JoSamps92

Infinite Blue Energy (IBE) wants to enable a sustainable green #hydrogen future from water, solar and wind energy, with no carbon debt.

@h2_view talked exclusively with its founder and Managing Director Stephen Gauld"

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"The In-Kraut". :):)

Dieter Zimmermann - Whole Lotta Love #music

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i am on some kind of cover station on net radio

Much better than the original

Sugarcoma - Crazy #music

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Rodrigo Y Gabriela - Stairway To Heaven #music

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Cafe is nearly empty. I'd pay effin extra for every place to have this level of sparseness all the time.

Pohlice looks like acting completely outside its element, thoroughly confused themselves.

I wonder if gov can "embed" social workers in every pol patrol. These workers wld have completely diff training, wout guns, be there in every situation. I'd give them some serious pull like a few demerits from them sends u straight to IA. I'd setup a complete seperate hierarchy for them, seperate from Mayor.

If police is acting too dug in as we keep seeing, w bunker mentality, can't reform, u need to crack open that wall let fresh eyes inside.

Two seperate hierarchies are actually used in some gov / militaries to prevent junta formations.

Taibbi: "The early American police forces evolved out of slave patrols in the South, and “progressed” to enforce the Black Codes from the Civil War period and beyond, on to Jim Crow through the late sixties if not longer. ...

Because they’re constantly throwing those people against walls, .. modern cops correctly perceive that they’re hated. As a result, many embrace a “warrior” ethos that teaches them to view themselves as under constant threat.   This is why you see so many knees on heads and necks, guns drawn on unarmed motorists, chokeholds by the thousand, and patterns of massive overkill everywhere ...

Police are trained to behave like occupiers, which is why they increasingly dress like they’ve been sent to clear houses in Mosul"

Link

For All Mankind... it's slow. Shantel VSanten is the bomb

What was that UK pol axiom? "Chaos benefits conservatives"? We'll see how it turns out for US.

Frickin military language everywhere.. During 2008 even f'nut econs were using words like 'shock and awe'

"@missy_ryan

Defense Sec Mark Esper during WH call w governors re civil unrest: "We need to dominate the battlespace.'"

"@NickHanauer

The pitchforks are coming. And when they are here, there will not be a hole you can dig deep enough to hide from them. Gonna make paying people enough to live in dignity seem really really cheap"

Unresolved Shit Piling Up. That is the headline that describes the world right now.

😂😂😂

"Brexit deadline approaches with no deal in sight"

I dont give much shit abt jobs but the tech is surely ready

Read my mind

"@samstein

What would really calm down these protestors now is a capital gains tax suspension on assets bought between now and the end of the year"

Hey US would it be possible we do not push already retarded countries into proxy wars so their democracies do not degrade? Asking for a friend.

"@joshua_landis

Turkey and Russia are preparing for a large-scale war in Syria claims"

Fuckin duplicates.. sort file | uniq -cd | sort -nr is your friend.

"@noloveformylove

IF YOU TAKE PICTURES AT A PROTEST: DO NOT FORGET TO SCREENSHOT THE PICTURE AND POST THE SCREENSHOT INSTEAD. IT WIPES THE METADATA SO THEY CANT LOOK BACK AT THE PICTURES YOU POSTED AND ARREST YOU FOR BEING THERE. BY WIPING THE METADATA YOU ESSENTIALLY ERASE TIES TO YOUR CAMERA+"

I have two other methods to run that difference, significance check, and could probably dig up a third. Interested parties need to learn this shit before talking shop on cause and effect.

Of course statistical significance is one thing, practical significance is another. That's another level of critical judgement that needs to applied to the result. As the Gelman / Hill book says

Statistical significance does not equal practical significance. For example, if the estimated predictive effect of height on earnings were 10 dollar per inch with a standard error of 2 dollar, this would be statistically but not practically significant. Conversely, an estimate of 10,000 dollar per inch with a standard error of 10,000 dollar would not be statistically significant, but it has the possibility of being practically significant (and also the possibility of being zero; that is what “not statistically significant” means)."

Impeachement was on 2019-12-18? We look at approval data before and after, 6 months before, 2 months after,

Data

import pandas as pd
df = pd.read_csv('/tmp/approval_topline.csv',parse_dates=True,index_col='modeldate')
df = df[['approve_estimate','disapprove_estimate']]
df = df.sort_index(by='modeldate')

df['net'] = df.approve_estimate - df.disapprove_estimate
event = '2019-12-18'; d1 = '2019-06-01'; d2 = '2020-03-01'
df1 = df[(df.index > d1) & (df.index < event)]
df2 = df[(df.index > event) & (df.index < d2)]
print (df1['net'].mean())
print (df2['net'].mean())

-11.725994522613066
-9.786354182648402

Net approval was lower before impeachement than after.

Is this significant? Let's compare means of both samples, using Welch two sample t-test,

from statsmodels.stats.weightstats import ttest_ind
print ( ttest_ind(df1['net'], df2['net']) )

(-14.416007336365869, 3.970177267005474e-42, 814.0)

The hypothesis that they are the same is rejected. Statistically these numbers are different. So impeachement helped Trump by 2% points.

One needs to look at the data and run statistical tests to answer that question. See above.

"Impeachement hurt Trump"

"@uncrushedvelvet

a government that can’t mobilize to house and feed us during a pandemic but can mobilize to beat us whenever we rise up tells you exactly where their priorities are"

"@tobaccodad

There's a neo Nazi serving life plus 400 years for doing exactly what I've seen multiple videos of cops doing in different cities right now"

"@justinamash

'No justice, no peace.' Is this a threat? A call to violence? No. It is an acknowledgment that without justice, peace is illusory. There is no state of peace in a society that condones injustice. The victims of such injustice, though they may remain silent, do not live in peace"

Revelation 17

The seven heads are seven hills on which the woman sits. They are also seven kings. Five have fallen, one is, the other has not yet come; but when he does come, he must remain for only a little while. The beast who once was, and now is not, is an eighth king

Daaaaam. Like I said religion is politics, and is against Roman politics. Guy is talking about Rome in disguise, straight up.

"@HelenGymPHL

It's time. Almost three years after Charlottesville, the Rizzo statue will come down - and the fight for greater justice must continue"

"@ThisGuyGetsLit

Hey guys. President and CEO of Antifa here. I tried to change our name to avoid the presidents classification as a terrorist group, but the name I chose was al-Nusra Front and then the CIA immediately gave us 500 BGM-TOW antitank missiles and 2 Bearcats. I regret the error"

"@H2Bjorn

Fatih Birol said, '...We are not talking about the clean electricity transitions, we are talking about the clean energy transitions. Hence, investment in hydrogen, carbon capture, and storage will be critically important'"

Link

"@brianschatz

I will be introducing an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act to discontinue the program that transfers military weaponry to local police departments"

"@samswey

For those who are interested in research-based solutions to stop police violence, here’s what you need to know - based on the facts and data. A thread"

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That song was one old-skool rap... Good rhymes, but boring notes. I almost prefer mumble rap. Foh dat biih..

"@ZakkFlash

Somebody stole an encrypted Chicago police radio and is disrupting their communications by blasting 'Fuck the Police' by the legendary NWA"

"Rumsfeld: Looting is transition to freedom"

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Bloody hell.. Looks bad

"@KevinRKrause

She says she was walking home with her groceries when police fired some sort of pellet in her face. Says she’s not a protester. #DallasProtests"

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Man I feel for Americans.. Getting hit from all directions these days.

I bet you can't

"Tigger: But I bet I can find our nat roots in the population data"

"@iamKITTENS

UNDERCOVER COPS AT LA PROTESTS GOT AN ORANGE BAND ON THEIR ARM TO IDENTIFY EACH OTHER. STAY SAFE AND AWARE OF YOUR SURROUNDINGS"

"@sassysamosa

thinking about the allocation of money being given to cops to dress like iron man while our doctors are wearing garbage bags to protect themselves"

Not all of it bad..

"@lizzieohreally

I feel the soundtrack of last few months for New Yorkers has been constant sirens, just different reasons"

"@StevieOakley

I bet Canada feels like they live in the Apartment above a Meth Lab right about now.."

"@BCAppelbaum

Americans have the right to gather and protest. The police are paid and empowered to protect our ability to exercise our rights. Instead, night after night, many police departments are treating protesters as enemies"

Sleeping Satellite - Tasmin Archer #music

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The race problems due to pol brutality and ppl wondering how to fix it always reminds me that joke with patient going to doctor saying 'Doc it hurts when I move my arm this way'. What does the doctor say? Tho flippant that's the answer.

If u paid attn to the man instead of shouting him down u'd be in much pos today wouldnt you? #cap

"@justinamash

Violence will not bring justice, and silence will not bring peace. Speak out. Take action. The callous murder of George Floyd symbolizes the cold indifference of too many legislators, police and prosecutors, judges and juries. We have denied justice. We have prevented peace"

😆😆😆 Guy has a f-ing guillotine at home

@gravity_levity

I think I was well past a PhD in physics before I realized that a rocket never actually has to achieve "escape velocity" in order to escape earth's orbit. It can be lifted arbitrarily slowly, so long as the thrust always exceeds the local gravitational force.

@drewmckevitt

There's actually a great deal of evidence that police violence is so much more pervasive and deadly in the United States precisely because there are so many guns here. Police tactics have evolved to assume everyone is potentially an armed enemy prepared to kill them

You don't know what ur talking about...

"You say TR identity is used in an opressive way. It can't be that bad.."

"@bartbiebuyck

Seven European countries ministers are expressing their joint support for a H2 ambition"

PDF

"@IEA_Hydrogen

Hydrogen-based fuel takes the spotlight for India’s renewable energy future. State-run @IndianOilcl is building a long-term renewable energy transition strategy that is turning its attention to toward #HydrogenNow based fuel"

Of course he did. There was the right focus on science, all the reforms that were talked about in the past 100+ yrs were enacted. Changing the alphabet, women's rights, etc. The problem is with the national narrative, which bordered on the fantastical. But what makes it worse is how Kemal enmeshed his persona in those fairy tales so now seperating the two is impossible. But it needs to be done. A new Republic possibly. The French do that, no? They number them too, like 1st, 2nd..?

"But didn't Kemal of TR do some good stuff?"