thirdwave

Github Mirror

Week 17

"@Jkylebass

Working with a senior government official on The Eagle Plan. It will immediately deliver $10,000 to all American citizens in exchange for a 1-yr deferral of eligibility for Social Security and Medicare benefits (from age 67 to 68)"

"HydroSil [an H2 carrier] is stable and non-toxic and uses the same logistic as conventional liquid fuels"

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Answer. Summary: voltage fluctuate in that case across households -/+ less amps required within same wattage gives different voltage, since $p = iv$, and that is okay within a certain window.

Dude said "power used is proportional to voltage squared" which is true.

$$ v = Ri, \quad p = vi = v \left[ \frac{v}{R} \right] = \frac{v^2}{R} $$

Additionally there are ppl running the generators who try to predict demand on hourly basis so they run turbines on a schedule to generate energy at acceptable levels.

But IMO gas / pipeline based grids wld be able to regulate themselves much better. Hell individual homes could store excess H2 energy on their own in huge amts if they wanted to.

"What happens to [AC] electricity [in the grid] that is not needed"

Gas based tranmission is crazy efficient. Let's replace electricity grid with gas grid.

"Transport of H2 by pipeline exploits the high energy transmission capacity of H2 (4 to 5 times that of electricity using HVDC (respectively 27 and 6 GWh/h) and of the same order of natural gas (38 GWh/h)). This high transmission capacity is of particular advantage for H2 production from RES considering that many of these sources are far from the major load centres"

PDF

How to use sewage net for covid testing.

Guy is right, the search (testing) steps can be near log2 bcz you keep dividing the search space into two, the area gets small very fast. I guess this is the reverse of exponential growth, a reverse exp decrease (decay) so to speak.

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"Green energy could drive Covid-19 recovery with $100tn boost"

The Guardian

Price is coming down fast for FCs. But I wouldnt worry abt price on consumer side too much bcz automakers usually include a few years of fuel with the sale or lease of a vehicle.

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What is a typical battery capacity for bitch BEV? 100 KWh? Hyundai Nexo has H2 tank capacity of 6.33 kg, the energy density of H2 fuel is 33.3 kWh/kg, multiply the two you get ~ 210 kWh. 100 vs 210. FC got you beat son. Nexo can travel 756 km on a full tank BTW. Typical BEV performs worse, if the bat doesn't lose half its capacity before that due to "fast charging" and/or simply stops working due to cold or other "extreme" weather conditions.

"How do battery and fuel-cell capacities compare?"

Summary, the issue is private debt

The Great Stagnation, Plantenberg: "With interest rates hitting zero, the Bank of Japan's only way to induce money growth [was] to keep printing money. But the BOJ has already bought government bonds, and thus created money, on a large scale. The monetary base has increased at an annual rate of almost 25 percent over the two years to 2003 .. Yet this has not led to higher growth in broad money. Instead, bank lending has continued to fall. Banks are reluctant to lend, as they are already piled up with bad loans, a problem that is only slowly being overcome. Moreover indebted firms are unwilling to borrow as long as the deflation environment persists."

Betoko - Dance On My Feet #music

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Raining Again · Betoko #music

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Awwww shiit. Rogoff slapped down.

Plantenberg, Accounting for current account changes: "With the current account balance being one of the most important variables of an open economy, one should expect that its economic determinants are well understood. Yet, as this paper seeks to demonstrate, this is not the case. This paper focuses on the most influential theory of the current account balance, the so-called intertemporal approach to the current account, and provides empirical evidence that undermines the theory’s main idea.

The intertemporal approach is an old theory that was popularized in the 1980s and 1990s. The third volume of the Handbook of International Economics edited by Grossman and Rogoff (1995) dedicates a whole chapter to it (Obstfeld and Rogoff, 1995). And at least since the publication of the authoritative macroeconomics textbook by Obstfeld and Rogoff (1996), every graduate student attending international economics classes will have heard of it.

The main idea of the theory is easily conveyed.... Under the simplifying assumption that domestic agents hold only foreign assets, this implies that countries with temporarily high incomes will run current account surpluses and that countries with temporarily low incomes will run current account deficits. .. What this paper does is that it measures across countries to what extent the changes in the current account are accounted for by changes in national income and national expenditure, respectively. It then shows that current account changes do not primarily come about through changes in national income—as the intertemporal approach would predict—, but instead through changes in national expenditure"

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Who says gov cannot advance, innovate

Sounds innovative.

"We .. introduced new types of tests .. that has no RNA extraction stage"

#hancock #NHS

"A leading Russian microbiologist has claimed the coronavirus is the result of Wuhan scientists doing 'absolutely crazy things' in their laboratory"

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"Canada: One million respirators acquired from China unfit for coronavirus fight"

FC lecture

US $R_t$ is below 1. Congrats.

Looks like a scifi movie poster.

#congress

"South Korea Embraces EU-Style Green Deal For COVID-19 Recovery"

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Same report: "Based on current processes .. seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) 60% at 3.5 Kilowatt hours per cubic meter (kWhm-3) and thermally driven processes 40% at 17 kWhm-3, the total desalination energy consumption .... with the projected expansion of desalination capacities, the energy consumption .. is expected to reach to 2.4 Gigawatt hours (GWh) in 2030 as compared to only 1.4 GWh in 2018"

"Presently, 150 countries are operating over 19,500 desalination plants to produce 100 million cubic meters per day to fulfill the demand of a population of 300 million throughout the world"

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Superlover - Steam #music

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CamelPhat feat. Jem Cooke - Rabbit Hole #music

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"ABB signs Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Hydrogène de France to jointly manufacture megawatt-scale fuel cell systems capable of powering ocean-going vessels"

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That's funny bcz Cylons in BSG were nicknamed "toasters"

So true. Yet I see some teachers even in ORMS brush such details under the carpet. How can u not show where $A$ comes from? The whole problem is encoded in it. I don't want to see some freak preprocessing code and an obtuse API call. Show me the $A$!

"[It] is so important, just to identify the matrix $A$!" -- Gilbert Strang

Sounds like the String Theory of its day.

"@johncarlosbaez

Kelvin became fascinated by the theory of vortex atoms, studying the stability of vortex rings.

Kelvin (= Thomson) argued that vortex rings were a better theory than the main alternative: atoms as infinitely hard balls, made of... what?

He started calculating the vibrational modes of vortex rings, hoping they could explain atomic spectra!

For a while, in the late 1800s, you could get a job at a British university studying vortex atoms. The subject was never very popular outside the UK.

The models got more complex, and nobody ever succeeded in matching the properties of actual atoms.

Eventually Kelvin gave up on vortex atoms... but didn't admit it publicly.

In an 1896 talk FitzGerald, another expert on vortex atoms, recognized the problems - but argued that it was "almost impossible" to falsify the theory, because it was so flexible"

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I didn't mean to but now I know two different ways of looking at the assignment problem, and three different computational methods to solve it.

Open source at work

Haha.. there is some good stuff there.. My fav is the DS9 one, excerpt below

"How Science Fiction Imagined the 2020s

The first episode opens with a transporter error that sends three crew members back in time to 2024 San Francisco. Two characters are promptly arrested for being homeless and dumped in a “sanctuary zone,” a walled inner-city internment camp for those unable to find work. The third crew member conversely has the good fortune to be found by a literal tech billionaire who made his fortune running media platforms on the internet — sorry, “the interface” — and government data-mining contracts. The story takes an even more radical and political turn when the characters realize they have to ensure that a riot happens in the sanctuary zone, thus triggering political events that will give rise to the Federation"

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Yes I've heard of some cases where the unemployed refused job offer bcz they did not want to lose their unemployment checks. Some. But Imma use this opp to stress the need for UBI anyway; With UBI ppl wld never be in fear of losing money if employed, whatever employer pays increases worker's already existing income by that much. Win win.

Is this guy serious? A plethora of muppets got a bail-out but the states is where you draw the line?

"McConnell Says States Should Consider Bankruptcy, Rebuffing Calls for Aid"

4.4 M more claims.

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AKE FTW

"Ashai Kasei Engineering received an order for its 10MW large alkaline water electrolysis system from Toshiba Energy Systems Corporation and New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organisation (NEDO).

'This water electrolysis system is one of the largest in the world as a stack size and can produce and supply 1,200Nm3 of hydrogen (at rated operation) per hour,' Ashai Kasei said.

'After launching this water electrolysis system in November 2019, as a result of conducting various tests, we were able to confirm hydrogen quality that meets the required level'".

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ESA’s upcoming Jupiter Icy moons Explorer (Juice) spacecraft has arrived at @AirbusSpace Friedrichshafen, Germany, for final integration. To be launched in 2022, Juice will search for traces of life on #Ganymede, #Callisto and #Europa

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Boris Brejcha - Butterflies #music

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"@WarWithTheDinos

We’re thrilled to announce our film, AT WAR WITH THE DINOSAURS, is available for pre-order today"

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10:22:36*

"Why didn't we see the ills of globalization before?". It started as a way to spread US hegemony, to strengthen China against Russia, and then it fed on itself - ppl, orgs formed around it who benefited from this preferential system. After a while ppl forgot how it started. Who would research its basis? People like Thomas Friedman are too fucking stupid to question those assumptions. This is the guy who will write the narrative for you after the fact, within the existing bubble / reality. He doesnt have the necessary constitution to dig any deeper. Same for most of the Washington think-tank crowd. The ones who could, had the skills somehow stayed out, I guess again bcz of inertia.

More from the same tweetstorm: "Trevor Hastie, Steve Goodman, @robtibshirani and I have been asking for more information about their analysis and their data".

Dude frickin Tibshirani, Hastie, top statistics gurus had to get involved.

And there was a whole uproar on that Santa Clara County report.

Their results were questionable, and here's a passage from a commenter that is really maddening,

[@wfithian] I am alarmed at their sloppy behavior. The confidence interval calculation in their preprint made demonstrable math errors, *not* just questionable methodological choices...

I can't redo the whole calculation myself because parts were not described anywhere, but I have low confidence that those parts were done correctly; if not, the corrected confidence interval for prevalence in Santa Clara County might well stretch all the way to include zero.

The authors said by email that they used a built-in Stata function and aren't sure themselves how the software used the input weights. I suspect they misapplied that function"

Mot..f..ka; used "a built-in Stata function"? What is this, the dark ages? The software used is shit (and closed-source), duplication is shit. And they dont even have their code available which uses the closed-source shit.

What is going on here is serious mentality and toolkit fail. Akin to still using Cobol in that gov office to process unemployment claims, and a prevalent lack of slickness in using modern tools.

He doesn't report his model success, the $R^2$. He did not share code nor data. "Made av on request" is a punt. Either you have files available or not. Nowadays everyone capable enough in this space has data / code on Github.

"[Reportedly according to his stats model] There is no empirical evidence for these lockdowns" - Wilford Riley

Yes. We need less connectivity. Respect sparsity, locality.

"@JennyBryan

It feels like Microsoft, Google, and Apple are all trying to create a world where people have no freaking clue where their files are saved and I think this is a Really. Terrible. Idea.

This is the root cause of our kids' greatest agony re: online learning right now"

"@MikeGrunwald

Democrats cave: Nothing for states or cities, nothing for election protection or the post office, no oversight, no limits on fossil fuel bailouts, no food stamps. They got some testing - somehow that’s a GOP concession!"

Mmmmmmm escalope of veal

Governor Fredo's brother... I guess the "illness" did not help ratings, so he "got better". Understood.

"Chris Cuomo returns from his basement quarantine"

Here is mine

NANO

NANO

NANO

NANO

NANO

NANO

NANO

NANO

That's one idea certainly...

"@People4Bernie

POSTAL BANKING

POSTAL BANKING

POSTAL BANKING

POSTAL BANKING

POSTAL BANKING

POSTAL BANKING

POSTAL BANKING"

Nice derivation of Gini calculation.

PDF

Fully stocked.

Just realized that Pikkety book came out in '13, around peak year of US inequality.

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Haha.. a tweet says UK PM BJ is "hors de combat".

Jobs, sure, are in AU.. But then u save everything on sight.

Really? I just heard something on the radio on this the other day. Singapore, UAE, China are all stakeholders in VA. Web says main owners are Nanshan Group, HNA Group, Singapore Airlines and Etihad Airways. Branson remains as a 10% shareholder.

So then AU gov is naturally like 'there are some stakeholders here with deep pockets - why is it up to us to save them?'. Cant say I disagree.

This is another downside to globalized markets - when shit hits the fan for comps, which country do you go to? Where do you really belong?

"Richard Branson throws shade at Australian government for refusing bailout"

No 1918 flu was not "Kansan" - there is nothing conclusive about that claim. U r slippin ma' man..

"Coronavirus deaths greater where Fox News viewers watched 'Hannity' more than Tucker Carlson, study"

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"@Jkylebass

What happens if June WTI crude trades below zero all at once with storage full?Could Wall St firms that carry positions for US listed oil ETFs be on the hook for billions in losses after retail investors lose everything? Looks like Amaranth happening all over again to retail ETFs'

Solitary Man - Johnny Cash #music

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"@QuantaMagazine

A new geological model based on the mathematics of avalanches could upend our understanding of earthquakes’ deadliest waves and perhaps save lives in the process"

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Descendants of mafia-agro-empires, unite.

Take Egypt, tigger with you, then u have one fucknut of a cultural / historical bloc.

"In one survey this month, 59% of respondents [in Italy] said the EU as it is now makes no sense any more. In another, most Italians described China as a friend and almost half said Germany was the enemy"

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A-uh. Schmidhuber is angry.

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Taibbi: "Why Did Democrats Nominate Donna Shalala to the Bailout Oversight Panel?

With the Congressional Oversight Committee, Democrats had a rare opportunity to reverse public perception about the party’s closeness to Wall Street. Instead, they punted again"

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Hopefully planting shit in the ground digging shit out of the ground era ends soon. The source of many troubles.

"@anunezjimenez

In my lifetime, I have seen things one would not believe:

I am not yet 30 years old"

I wouldn't brush this event off as a "financial pecularity". Futures are the most down-to-earth financial construct there is - you get delivery of a certain commodity, on a pre-specified date, for a pre-specified amount. Due to storage costs the price went negative but that highlights something, there is no storage left for oil, demand died.

"@p_hbar_k

This contract expires tomorrow. Whoever holds the contract has to take custody of physical oil and there is no place to put it. Hence, they are willing to pay to take that burden off of them. June contract is trading above $20 (so far) though"

Daaaaaam #oil

2020-04-19    17.040001
2020-04-20    -2.720000
2020-04-21     0.010000

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George Osborne: "more belt-tightening will be needed after the coronavirus shock"

That's how it is among whites in SA you know.. A small # of ppl, they live in gated communities and just keep fuckin eachother so they get all crooked, especially mentally

"@fuelcellsworks

Gasunie Joins PosHYdon, the First Offshore Green Hydrogen Project--PosHYdon integrates three energy systems in the North Sea: offshore #wind, #gas & #hydrogen & will take place on the Q13a platform of Neptune Energy"

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"Eeww but what of RBG?" What of RBG? U look at all the Clint, Bam appointments, were they for the working man, small biz, or pro-corporate?

"But RBG is pro-abortion". That highlights the faux division that is required the keep the kabuki theater going, while corporations buy out America and the rest of the world.

The Telegraph: "Our embrace of China was naive and cynical – now is the time to hold Beijing to account"

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"@nytimes

Other nations, including the United States, are still struggling to test for infections. But Germany is doing that and more. It is aiming to sample the entire population for antibodies in coming months"

"@ClimateBen

Did you know?

  1. The vast North China Plain, one of China’s main food growing regions and currently home to about 400 million people, is set to become almost uninhabitable due to unsurvivable heat waves as we zoom beyond 2.5°C of global warming.

  2. India faces the same threat"

"With the coronavirus pandemic and the shutdown of big parts of the European economy, the 2x40GW Green Hydrogen Initiative can serve as a blueprint for a bigger EU recovery, Hydrogen Europe Secretary General Jorgo Chatzimarkakis told New Europe on April 16.

The 2x40GW Green Hydrogen Initiative aims to promote a massive increase of electrolyser production within the EU in order to support green hydrogen production.

Announcing the publication of the paper, Chatzimarkakis told New Europe the 2×40 GW initiative can be regarded as a “great asset” for the implementation of the EU Green Deal. “What we foresee here is that basically todays Marshall Plan would be the Green Deal"

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Not bad. This guy has talent.

"@BernieSanders

Instead of bailing out the health care insurance industry during this crisis, Medicare should be required to pay all of the medical bills of the uninsured and underinsured"

"Democrats’ Big Coronavirus Idea Is to Subsidize Health Insurers"

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Whenever I unfollow I pick few ppl off person's follow list. I reason, there must have been something to the person hence I started following, they go full tard, but I can stil make use of some their angle through their picks.

"@davidgraeber

I've said it before, I'll say it again. Corporate bureaucracies can't organise space exploration. Big state bureaucracies could because they were willing to put up with weirdos"

"Things that go crump in the night"

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Fabricated virus that escaped is a big possibility. A bio-attack is another. It was the perfect weapon to hit Trump with if u think abt it, the timing makes sense too. You see the man as the existential threat, sacrifice some of your own to kill the enemy - isn't that how war is conducted? You know your dictatorial state can handle the shutdowns, quick (especially since u r the ones who f-ing started it), but US wld have a harder time...

This is the good part

"According to [Montaigner], the altered elements of this virus are eliminated as it spreads: 'Nature does not accept any molecular tinkering, it will eliminate these unnatural changes and even if nothing is done, things will get better, but unfortunately after many deaths.' Luc Montagnier added that with the help of interfering waves, we could eliminate these sequences and as a result stop the pandemic"

I mentioned this early Feb, that Indian research, but there wasn't any follow-up.

"According to Professor Luc Montagnier, winner of the Nobel Prize for Medicine in 2008 for discovering HIV as the cause of the AIDS epidemic together with Françoise Barré-Sinoussi, the SARS-CoV-2 is a virus that was manipulated and accidentally released from a laboratory in Wuhan, China, in the last quarter of 2019. According to Professor Montagnier, this laboratory, known for its work on coronaviruses, tried to use one of these viruses as a vector for HIV in the search for an AIDS vaccine!

'With my colleague, bio-mathematician Jean-Claude Perez, we carefully analyzed the description of the genome of this RNA virus,' explains Luc Montagnier, interviewed by Dr Jean-François Lemoine for the daily podcast at Pourquoi Docteur, adding that others have already explored this avenue: Indian researchers have already tried to publish the results of the analyses that showed that this coronavirus genome contained sequences of another virus, … the HIV virus (AIDS virus), but they were forced to withdraw their findings as the pressure from the mainstream was too great"

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Teacher gets 30 students on Zoom for class. Now that's a perfect waste of net bandwidth.

We are still placing tech paint on the existing system. We need to rethink the entire system.

😊🦉🦉🦉🦉🦉🦉🦉👍

"Being a pet parent". Haha

From Bild to Xi PingPing. Bad news for CH bcz DE-CH rels are usually ok. Bild is one of the largest newspapers in Europe. Seifert is its chief ed.

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Echo State Nets - they might have value for predictable time series, but be careful on financial time series. Fin series depends on many other external factors other than the history of series itself. Use real money on this, you will lose your shirt!

Japan's Economic Dilemna, Gao (on Japan's bubble, and following stagnation)

"The dilemma in Japanese corporate governance between, on the one hand, strong coordination and, on the other hand, weak control and monitoring provided the causal mechanism that led to excessive competition, a phenomenon that was critical both to Japan’s high growth and to the bubble. ... “Control” refers to the control of shareholders over management due to the separation between ownership and management (Kester 1997), and “monitoring” refers to the mechanisms established by banks for 'assessing the credit-worthiness of proposed projects; tracking the use of funds; distinguishing misuse from temporary bad luck and correcting it; as well as credible commitment to penalizing misuse as a safeguard against future misuse'...

Strong coordination was achieved, however, at the cost of deliberately weakening shareholder control over management and weakening banks’ monitoring over corporations at the micro level (Kester 1997; Miyazaki 1963; Morozumi 1963a). Protected by the state, private corporations and banks reduced their transaction costs through indirect financing, through the use of the main bank system, and through business group and reciprocal shareholding.

Sustained by the permanent employment system practiced by big corporations and by multidimensional integration within business groups, strong coordination led not to a socialist, planned economy but rather to excessive competition among Japanese corporations in investing in production capacity and technological transfers. This excessive competition, in turn, triggered the high growth. After the First Oil Shock, in contrast, banks’ monitoring further deteriorated as corporations began to build financial independence, separating themselves from the main banks. In the liberalization of finance, banks’ leverage over corporations was weakened because corporations began to raise capital through equity finance and zai’tech (financial technology). After the Plaza Accord, moreover, the mishandling of international demand resulted in not only an oversupply of money but also the adoption of an expansionary fiscal policy that shifted the incentive structure of private investments from production to the stock and real estate markets. When the state policies served to significantly increase investment risks, the weak control and monitoring that characterized Japanese corporate governance contributed directly to the rise of the bubble"

Log barrier method of opt needs a feasible starting pt and the way to find that gives you ... another LP. That segway was so sweet, I cld drink it like fine wine brother 🍷