thirdwave

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Week 14

Update of econ numbers. VIX is down to 46. Dollar >100.

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Of course he was right. He just couldn't sell it.

The Atlantic: "Even before the coronavirus outbreak, many on the “populist,” or “radical,” left insisted that globalization, climate change, automation, and inequality were creating the conditions for their own political resurgence, despite their leaders—Bernie Sanders in the United States, Jeremy Corbyn in Britain—being rejected at the ballot box. Now, in a world where governments are nationalizing wages and public services just to keep their economies afloat, such claims no longer seem far-fetched. Indeed, Corbyn, who will be replaced as Labour leader today, said the emergency economic measures being taken in Britain have proved him 'absolutely right'"

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I have to say ppl 3D printing filters, masks is awesome.

JNK, BKLN, .. are corp credit ETFs.

"@TruthGundlach

Corporate credit market is well off its low. Yet financial media narrative is of continued 'thaw' this week. Was there? From the highs of the past week into the close today, here are the returns: LQD -2.6%. BKLN -4.9%. JNK -5.1%"

Hardball 😆😆 I am lovin it

"@spectatorindex

.. Medical masks sold by American firm 3M to Germany were intercepted in Thailand and diverted back to the US"

CDC: "It is critical to emphasize that maintaining 6-feet social distancing remains important to slowing the spread of the virus. CDC is additionally advising the use of simple cloth face coverings to slow the spread of the virus and help people who may have the virus and do not know it from transmitting it to others. Cloth face coverings fashioned from household items or made at home from common materials at low cost can be used as an additional, voluntary public health measure"

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Cash is trash?

You need education my brother..

Bloomberg: "Bridgewater’s Main Hedge Fund Loses About 20% in First Quarter"

It's true. We are the virus.

"The sky's never been so blue"

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Liam is short for William?

Maybe it's about stakes.. I mean the stakes the writers, creators of these shows experienced in their lives. Roddenberry was a trained fighter pilot, even in civilian life once his plane came down in Syrian Desert guy broke two ribs but dragged injured passengers out of a plane and led the group to safety. His personal life was scifi, adventure. How can the uppity, LA crackhead, cossetted, bland-life writer compete with this?

Watched an old DS9 ep: Chief's wife gets body snatched by an alien who wants to destroy enemy aliens in a wormhole. She has the Chief to fire a weapon into the wormhole but the Chief figures out with the help of Ferrengi engineer Ram turns the tables on the alien.

Wonderful ep. Why dont we have more ST shows like this anymore? The ep was abt characters, smart, made sense, most chars were likable.

I have a feeling years of especially Rep driven push to gut the government worked, the gov is gutted. Any bureucratic fail I hear recenty I attribute to them.

"The Netherlands want to use their 'unique starting position' in the gas value chain to become world leaders in the production and use of green hydrogen, saying the fuel 'can become a globally traded commodity'

The government’s hydrogen strategy was officially unveiled on Monday (30 March), with a letter presented to the Dutch Parliament"

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Haha.. very much on character as in MacKay vs Mrs Miller.

StratoShare

ArXiV is awesome 👍

"@HigherGeometer

Submitted a paper to a physics journal whose first requirement is: your paper must be on the arXiv, and the first thing we ask for is the arXiv reference number. The metadata is lifted directly, and even the paper's .tex source file if you want"

"@1followernodad

All this because some asshole thousands of years ago invented farming"

"Trial drug can significantly block early stages of COVID-19 in engineered human tissues"

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DIY mask

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DIE MOTHERFRACKERS

"@Nouriel

Beginning of the great shale debt crisis and domino of bankruptcies...it will become a tsunami and lead to contagion in [high-yield] from energy other highly leveraged sectors....worse than 2015-16!

'Shale group Whiting files for Chapter 11'"

Thing is rents and mortages could be frozen as easily as other countries have done it. But in US so much finance downstream depends on that cash flow whose interruption could cause mayhem that they wld rather supplement that flow rather than freeze it in any way.

Master player DJT

This # supports the shit jobs theory.. More expandable jobs than the smokestack industrial jobs probably. By not switching to post-industrial we created something worse, an in-between shitapocalypse, middle meager medium shit jobs. They are thrown away at the first sign of trouble.

"@GreekFire23

6.6 million jobless claims!!!😱😱😱holy cow! The highest claims posted for a week during the financial crisis was 665,000"

When does the "bottom fall outa the dollaah?". I am waiting..

2020-04-01 99.753

Funny (but actually sad) thing abt it is that 6,6M initial claims number is so huge the prev 3+ mil number is dwarfed, the graph still looks freaky, but freaky same way.

I am so glad I created my own infrastructure to watch this covid, one keystroke got latest numbers graphs !!

"@spectatorindex

CHINA: City of Shenzhen becomes the first in the country to ban the eating of cats and dogs"

Haha.. watching Contagion, 2011, one char just said "social distancing"

RIP. TTUD was a good movie.

1918 and 1929 happening all at once.

California Love - Tupac Shakur #music

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Air Liquide.. Capable company. Ah and they do H2. See, never fails

Good good..

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"@adamcchang

Here's what happened in the Czech Republic after they imposed mandatory mask-wearing on March 18th. The daily increase in cases has dropped from over 20% before the #masks4all rule to just 6%"

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"@BCAppelbaum

It's illegal for most people but Congress has effectively decided that it's fine for Congress to engage in insider trading"

Bailing Out the Bailout

#taibbi

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Hah! That's a great idea.

"@koeppelmann

Testing capacity in Germany will be increased by up to factor 10 to up to 400,000 a day (!) by doing pooled testing. E.g mix 16 samples and if negative - all are negative, otherwise binary search for the positve(s). Could of course be used worldwide"

"@Peston

@michaelgove said just now that the difficulty in increasing number of COVID19 tests was due to a shortage of the relevant 'chemcial reagents'. Well I've just talked to the Chemical Industries Association, which represents the UK's very substantial chemicals industry. It has contacted its members, and they've said there is no shortage of the relevant reagents"

.. so I can exploit you independently.

"@Renegade_Inc

Richard Branson in Anti-Union Video to Employees: 'Protect your Independent Spirit' and 'Say No' to Unions"

Cats!

"We found that SARS-CoV-2 replicates poorly in dogs, pigs, chickens, and ducks, but efficiently in ferrets and cats"

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After 10 Workers Get COVID-19, 1,000 Immigrant Meatpackers Walk Off the Job in Colorado

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Unpayable Corporate Debt: A Brady Bond Solution for America’s Economic Crisis

#hudson

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Chris Isaak – You Owe Me Some Kind Of Love #music

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Cold Hearted - Paula Abdul #music

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Brit royal Philip: “If it has got four legs and it is not a chair, if it has got two wings and it flies but is not an aeroplane, and if it swims and it is not a submarine, the Cantonese will eat it.”

Journalism fills that gap in modernity; As Toffler said once society is broken up into many pieces someone had to put it together again. The Integrators, the managerial class performed most of that task. But more was needed, in Western, democratic context, that more was the journalists. They carried the gossip, assigned merit and demerit, poked, informed (as much as they could), worked to front-run decision-makers, etc. Important job.

"@plutokiller

A hopeful article on how we might already be seeing benefits of social distancing"

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Interesting scenario.. corp bonds go trash then they are accepted less and less as collat in repo. People hoard treasuries and dollars, hey instead of losing money isnt it better to keep your money at zero IR or straight up cash? Which means dollar demand, dollar goes up, shortage everywhere.

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👍

"@9NewsAdel

South Australian schools are preparing to move more classes online for Term 2, which could have a big impact on staff, students and parents"

Woha

"@kevinhorgan

Conservative Australian PM announced a 3000 dol / month, flat rate, UBI for full time & part-time workers, a 6-month moratorium on Tenant evictions & effective Nationalisation of private hospitals. Best way to sustain economy?"

"@PatHartman_

You know what's weird? After years of using "viral" to describe something that quickly grows to outrageously large numbers... people still don't GET IT"

Haha.. not V, L, W but diminishing sine.. Very funny. Japanification? This is probably where US is headed unless it gets rid of its debt overhang.

"@tracyalloway

Of course, you can't beat the 'diminishing sine wave' shaped-recovery that Deutsche Bank was talking about back in 2009 after the financial crisis"

"@nntaleb

The @WHO shd be renamed WDO (World Disease Organization): had they not existed many lives would have been spared.

Friends are smelling conspiracy in WHO's claims ("evidence based"conflation of absence of evidence for evidence).

No, it's only incompetence.

Criminal incompetence"

Greeks, Romans, Ottocucks knew nothing abt tomatoes. Well Otto found out later bcz these dits actually managed to make it to 20th century, limpin and all, but what I am saying is the phenomenon is recent relatively speaking.

Tomatoes were discovered in America and brought back to Europe, near history. So they are very much American

"@IcarusGlider

This will go on for the rest of the year. 30 more days is wishful thinking. Renters without jobs cant pay rent. Landlords without rent cant pay mortgages. Banks without payments cant pay... on and on and on till something eventually gives"

ORMS = Operations Research and Management Science. Deals with resource planning, optimization of production, logistics, etc.

"@ILjubic

Attention French #orms colleagues:

The ministry of defense launched the call for proposals for innovative projects to fight #COVIDー19 :

Supply chain and logistics solutions are in high demand.

Contact Christian Artigues (director of GDR RO @CNRS"

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And Canada hunkers down, like ppl do during cold weather.. I believe Canada's culture code assigned to itself was TO KEEP (says Rapaille). They are about preservation, in large part, I am sure, due to their cold weather.

This is not the same as electronic banking. With elec banking u have to figure out the myriad ways your bank allows electronic access. With crypto, receiving payments is as easy as receiving a chat message.

Sad. So much more can be done technologicallly. Open a Nano acct, register that address with the government and they can wire any payment to you at the speed of light. This technology exists.

Modelers unite

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Easy recipe: Throw some sp into bowl, dice half onion into it, add olive oil, little water. Cook it medium heat for 5 mins. Cool it, mix plain yoghurt, serve.

Big spinach eater here. I am talking some Popeye level shit. Thing is full of useful ingreds. I looked for a snack bar with it and tada

4% spinach - probably measured in dried form, as weight, fresh spinach is 90% water, so this amt is not bad.. Now part of my breakfast. That and mobile coffee.

"@fuelcellsworks

Mitsubishi Corporation Signs MoU with Singaporean Companies on Sustainable #Hydrogen Economy--Companies Collaborate to Explore Hydrogen as a #lowcarbon Carbon Alternative for Singapore"

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"@leashless

So 90% of the crap in the global economy is utterly useless: nobody needs 162 varieties of barbie dolls, or 68 brands of shitty laptops.

Standardize: a few models, done well, durable, for everything. Good for climate, good for covid. Modular, resilient, lean. We can restructure"

Where u going bro? Who's gonna save the world?

Waaa waaa waaa waaaa

"@mikejanda

A wage subsidy is a good idea, but probably would’ve been a lot more effective if announced at the same time as the restrictions that effectively shut tens of thousands of businesses. So many workers already laid off and applying for welfare benefits.

'@m_stewart Yup. The model is the way New Zealand did it. I applied for subsidy Tuesday, day after lockdown announcement, in bank account by Thursday, first day of lockdown' "

Great. Each major country needs such capability within their borders.

"German scientist Olfert Landt was already on alert. For 30 years, he had worked on diagnosing emerging diseases, including Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). He wanted to make a test kit to help doctors diagnose the disease -- and he wanted to do it fast. Virologists usually wait until the genetic material of a new virus is sequenced to start working on a test. This time, Landt and his 30-strong company TIB Molbiol got started early. By January 9 they had designed their first test kit using SARS and other known coronaviruses as references. Along with scientists from a local university hospital, he designed three kits, meaning once the sequence was published, they could pick the one that worked best..

In Hong Kong [... another scientist] Poon waited for the sequence.

All forms of life have a type of molecule that carries their genetic instructions. In humans, and most life forms, that's DNA -- the genetic material that tells us to grow two legs and walk upright... But it wasn't until January 11, that the sequenced genome was posted on open-source site virological.org on behalf of Zhang Yongzhen, a professor from Shanghai's Fudan University. Chinese authorities shared the sequence on January 12.

Once Zhang shared the sequence, Poon's team started work... Next, they designed the test"

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Heard "there is deceleration of new covid cases in New York". Checked, there is some slowdown. Still I wouldnt call this flattening of the curve. Daily percent changes calculated below. Made use of NYT data. 

import pandas as pd, os
import zipfile
with zipfile.ZipFile(os.environ['HOME'] + '/Downloads/corona-county.zip', 'r') as z:
    df =  pd.read_csv(z.open('us-counties.csv'))
dfnys = df[df['state'] == 'New York']

nys = dfnys.groupby('date')['cases'].sum()
print ('New York State===========')
print ((nys.pct_change()*100.0).tail(6))

print ('New York City============')
dfnyc = df[df['county'] == 'New York City']
nyc = dfnyc.groupby('date')['cases'].sum()
print ((nyc.pct_change()*100.0).tail(6))

New York State===========
date
2020-03-22    46.465817
2020-03-23    37.625264
2020-03-24    22.950898
2020-03-25    28.835814
2020-03-26    17.906069
2020-03-27    14.486509
Name: cases, dtype: float64
New York City============
date
2020-03-22    45.628723
2020-03-23    36.042012
2020-03-24    21.129622
2020-03-25    34.256961
2020-03-26    15.496477
2020-03-27     9.895292
Name: cases, dtype: float64

Bloom Energy is a BUY.

OooooOoooo putting the Bern to task are we? Well he could say this

"@BenLaBolt

This is ... something @BernieSanders needs to work on every day from now until November. He is responsible for the outcome with this segment of voters - and his effort to persuade them to support @JoeBiden should start TODAY"

"@wesbury

Novartis CEO 'Pre-clinical studies in animals as well as the first data from clinical studies show that hydroxychloroquine kills the coronavirus'"

Michael Hudson: "You talked about the current generation having to pay off the debts of their predecessors. They’re not going to pay them off, these debts cannot be paid off. They can go bankrupt, they can starve, they can die sooner, but they cannot pay off the debts. Mathematically, there’s no way of these exponential growth in debts being paid off. In the end, every economy reaches a point where the debts cannot be paid and it is a choice: either it can wipe out the debts and grow again, or it can leave the debts in place and let it strangle the economy"

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"@zacharylipton

Why is ML [machine learning] .. stealing the spotlight & overshadowing (often-comparable) work? The rapid pace of innovation? The talent? The tooling? I'm inclined to think the major (unsung?) factor might just be the universality of ***open-access publishing***.

I've tried for hours today to access a desired chapter in a philosophy volume that is relevant to my work. Eventually gave up. This pay-wall nonsense is still pervasive in many fields but this would be unthinkable in ML post-2000.

The combination of a universal culture of instantly-accessible research (for both pre-prints and finished works) .. has perhaps uniquely positioned ML steal spotlight from many other fields"

"An effective response to the virus needs to be orchestrated as a coherent system of actions taken simultaneously. The results of the approaches taken in China and South Korea underscore this point. While the public discussion of the policies followed in these countries often focuses on single elements of their models (such as extensive testing), what truly characterizes their effective responses is the multitude of actions that were taken at once"

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Govs can provide an API, a machine digestible data providing simple site for company financials (Edgar aint it). Some of the software packages out there reverse engineer financial Web pages, they "scrape" raw data out of visual data, which starts to fail when the visual of the site is changed. A direct gov site would be much easier. Like u enter treasury.gov/financials/year/ticker and out you get a JSON output (text based, easy to process) for financials. Basically same output as yahoofinancials but official. This data legally needs to be public anyway. Post-CV feature request.

Read somewhere the EU coronabond debate morphed into a continuation of the Eurobonds debate. "The North" does not want either.

"@DavidZodda

This virus does not discriminate with regards to age or health status. But it does have an affinity for us. Health care workers represent more than 20% of all #COVID19 cases"

"@fuelcellsworks

First Hydrogen Filling Station in Baltics Put into Service--With one refueling of 3-5 minutes #hydrogen fuel cell-driven electric cars can run for about 600 km"

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"@NaithanJones

I’m hearing of and know a few people leaving SF for good. Hearing the same in NYC. Not for the burbs, for rural. Mainly for very cheap small rural towns. Quoted reasons as “wanted to do this long ago and Corona pushed me over edge”. Does Corona effectively end the rush to cities?"

"@ianbremmer

7 million people left Wuhan, China in January...after govt officials knew about coronavirus human to human transmission (and suppressed it) before travel was restricted (NYT).

7 million people"

GM was saved by Obama admin, for its electric car Bolt. Then GM continued on that idiotic path, so now the idiot investor chasing "value" looks out there and sees these options... But that particular palette of choices were created for you friend. Spoon fed to you by Obama, picking your "winner" for you. How's that feel?

Right, high yield came back from 12.39% down to 10.64%.

German death rates are very low. How come?

Translation: "Hydrogen in heavy goods traffic is slowly arriving in the daily press - luckily"

There are degrees of tard of course.. Bitcoiners are just betting on the wrong tech but there is something to digital money. Climate change deniertards are truly retarded. Many of the same ppl by the way who suggested the recent death march to work.

Even oranges and apples get washed with soap after brought in. Not mucking around here.

DJT net popul up by 2 pts now at -4% #538

Yeaah you better run

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Massie was flamed by Kerry. They have history apparently. From Wiki

On April 10, 2019, Massie got in a tense exchange with Former Secretary of State John Kerry during Kerry's testimony to the House Oversight and Reform Committee when Massie called Kerry's political science degree from Yale University a "pseudoscience degree" and called Kerry's position on climate change "pseudoscience." Kerry responded, "Are you serious? I mean this is really a serious happening here?"

Guy comes cross as climate deniertard but then he built himself house running on solar. Weird.

Is this correct? To simplify matters I'd just send the money to everyone. Sure rich ppl would get it too but there arent that many of them anyway (isnt that part of the problem to begin with?) so no harm done. Hell even some of the rich can end up poor after recent changes in the markets maybe they'd need that check soon! Wouldnt that be something?

????

And da cycle

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Here I did Steve Keen's favorite graph.

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"@mexieYT

I really hope people are radicalized by this moment.

It's proven that:

-money is a spook, we can pull it out of thin air

-rent is parasitic

-everyone's needs can be taken care of

-most of our work is unessential

-the environment will heal if we crush capitalism"

He says states are mandated to balance their budgets. Tax revenue plummets (ppl are fired, no work) they are in trouble.

Stiglitz: "Not enough money for state and local gov in the bill"

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"[3M] lines that assemble respirator cups, filters, nose clips, and nose foam are loaded with robots and other automation, while humans tend to packaging and other tasks that allow more easily for social distancing"

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"@tracyalloway

The financial system is just not set up for a temporary forbearance on payments. If someone doesn't pay for something, then someone else is owed something"

A shoddy institution of modernity. A glorified day care center for parents to park their kids in while they are off to their own useless rat race.

"@PereGrimmer

I taught my kid more math in like three days of quarantine than she was 'supposed' to learn in two years of school"

"@INVESTMENTSHULK

SOUTH AFRICA MILITARY CURFEW"

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1200 dol payment is a good thing, even more for families, congrats on that.

"@CaFCP

Japan’s plans to quickly develop hydrogen importing facilities seems to have prompted Russia start drawing up plans for a hydrogen economy mostly geared towards global exports, recent developments at Russia’s Energy Ministry and energy companies suggest"

"@RealMarkLatham

A guy eats a bat in Wuhan and now my two sons are without jobs.

The lesson is: when humans lose their mastery and control over the animal world, which is what happened in Wuhan wet market, our entire civilisation can suffer.

Humans must always put themselves first, animals second"

"@Renegade_Inc

When this ‘market’ corrects by around 40% and people begin to realise that credit creation drives prices... we can begin to resolve the so called housing crisis"

Riga, Latvia. New trolley buses.

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Russia stopped all intl flights?

@nytimes makes their county-level data on cases and deaths public... Hey this is very good - modern journalism can aim to be not only the distributer of news, but also the distributor of raw data which is just as valuable as the news itself.

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@FirstSquawk

DELIVERY TRUCKS REFUSING TO ENTER NEW YORK CITY ON CORONAVIRUS FEARS: MSNBC

Third Wave