thirdwave

Github Mirror

Week 12

"@timmaughan

wow sprint tv ad 'you can’t leave the house so you need a new cellphone'"

God must be Bernie-or-bust voter

"@MacBrandt

Remember two weeks ago? Neither do I"

"@MarkYusko

Stunning to me how deeply ingrained #BTFD mentality is...

Vast majority of people on @twitter, on TV, in broad media desperately analyzing every tiny uptick in market to claim now is time to buy...

Will be a #GenerationalBuyingOpportunity, but at MUCH lower levels

Still #STFR"

Junk Bonds

2020-03-19 11.51% 👀 👀 👀

Wer ist dein Vater

Whops - fall again

@Street_Insider

Trump said he will "demand" no stock buybacks for companies receiving aid $SPY

Corona: 39K more cases in one day, death rate 10.5 %.

I added a time series section (at the bottom), with an aggregate plot. The raw data has more detailed, country level confirmed numbers tho.

Link

"At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. The resulting number, however, does not represent the true case fatality rate"

Link

Dude. Trump is now on EVERYDAY. For cor briefing. Some serious shit.

"@Richard_Florida

This is exactly right.

Phase 1: Social/ Physical Distancing for 4-8 weeks to flatten the curve

Phase 2: A New Normal Returns in Summer

Phase 3: Massive/ Universal Testing & Isolation of those with the virus combined with better therapies

Phase 4: Vaccine"

Link

"@investingidiocy

All the people who mocked me when I built a home office in the garden last summer... enjoy trying to work next week with your kids fighting over your desk / kitchen table"

Vappiano, ka-boom.

"@papicek

An uninsured COVID-19 patient just got her medical bill: $34,927.43"

Link

Couchin

Brian Greene is also a stringer.. Moderate some effin panel, talk up science fine, but another failure... No cigar.

Right. Verlinde's model has no free parameters. A good thing. #physics

#voit #physics "It seems to be very hard to get some people to understand that the number of 'tests of string theory' is not 'very few' but zero, for the simple reason that there are no predictions of string theory, generic or otherwise"

Link

"@EamonJavers

I just got off the phone with former Bush NEC Director Larry Lindsey. He says everyone is missing the “big bazooka” in the Senate bill- massive payroll relief for small businesses in section 1105. He says it could impact up to 80 MILLION American jobs.

Lawrence Lindsey says the section provides loans to small businesses to cover payroll, and hugely incentivizes them not to lay anyone off. The measure:

Nice vid

"@_DaniBeck

Tired:

Attending Zoom meetings.

Wired:

Make the virtual background a video of you listening"

Link

Togetherness.. What does that even mean?

"@FirstSquawk

FRANCE INFECTIOUS DISEASE BOARD SAYS COMBINATION OF HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE AND AZITHROMICIN WORKING VERY WELL"

"@NorthmanTrader

Corporate America:

2009-2019: Cheapest money cycle in history

2017: Biggest corporate tax cut in history

2018: Record corporate profits

2019: Flat earnings growth

March 2020: Government bailouts please"

"@allisonpearson

My 24-yr-old has been paying National Insurance for two years. After losing job due to corona, inquired about Jobseekers’ Allowance. But can’t claim because needs to have been paying NI longer.

What happens to kids without homes & supportive parents?"

"@hkumed

'This is the worst time to relax because we’re at the highest risk since this began,' said Prof @gmleunghku, Dean of @hkumed. #COVID19 #Hongkong"

Link

Aw but we cant give handouts to everyone..

And AGAIN we are talking about corporate handouts.

"@DanielDenvir

Remember how the media treated the debate over Medicare for All and other basic social democratic protections like they were some petty fucking "ideological" game rather than a matter of life and death?"

Daaaaam

"@Breaking911

URGENT: Los Angeles Mayor says he will ‘deputize’ city officials to ‘drive around’ & enforce the “stay at home” order, implying there will be arrests if citizens don’t comply

'People are getting guns. They’re going crazy...'

'We’ll pay ‘em a visit...'"

@EFF

Ring: Doorbells that surveil your community reduce crime!

Statistics: Not really.

Link

Yes I saw quite a few coronav survival stories, but most say they get their ass kicked something fierce, were badly shaken. So 1 out of 10 losing that fight is not crazy.

Free-market Reps never liked this shit anyway, it distorts prices.. Prog left didn't like it bcz it enriched CEOs, the top 1%. SB canceling could also deny a line of attack on DJT during the general. Good politics.

👍👊 Very awesome

"@morningmoneyben

Trump says he is OK with bans on stock buy backs for companies that get Federal support"

"@ScottMinerd

The US Govt is able to sustain this #economy using extreme measures, but it has to come to the table like a distressed investor. Demand good collateral and warrants for the upside once this crisis passes"

"Axios has compiled a timeline of the earliest weeks of the coronavirus outbreak in China, highlighting when the cover-up started and ended — and showing how, during that time, the virus already started spreading around the world, including to the United States"

Link

More math muthafakka!

"@howardfineman

Some good news on the virus treatment front: a combo of drugs concocted in France that had a six-day, 100 percent cure rate in tight new test"

The spin changes hourly depending on the con

"@davidmarchorn

Why all this hubbub about the $TSLA factory? I thought it was a software company. Just program from home"

Aw but the bottom is gonna fall out of the dollar... 🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪

"@JTSEO9

King Dollar coming up on 2016 highs @PeterSchiff"

Education will fix all your problems.

"A Spanish biological researcher: You give the footballer one million euros a month a biological researcher 1,800 Euros. You are looking for a treatment now. Go to Cristiano Ronaldo or Messi and they will find you a cure"

Link

Work arrangements have gotten too complex, that's why direct payment to ppl makes a lot of sense. And for Reps who have a natural aversion to increased government, direct payments become a slam dunk.

"@sigfpe

I've watched a lot of apocalyptic and post-apocalyptic movies and TV shows but I don't remember one where there was a lockdown but you could nip out to Trader Joe's to replenish your store of Sauvignon Blanc and chocolate truffles"

Journalistic coding might be different than regular coding. If I was coding regularly I'd have corona map color specs in the util.py. But I want ppl see the bucket sizes and colors on the main page, so they are passed to the function from outside.

Epic

Link

Oh no

The new initial claims number will be epic.

"@nicepantsdude

This makes me realize that if america was attacked by aliens, our first response would be to lower interest rates"

"@orthereaboot

$tsla is still up ~35% from when they reported abysmal Q3 earnings masked in accounting chicanery & fraud"

I guess Reps bought some time with it..

"@ZeroHedgeRobot

After Blowing $4.5 Trillion On Buybacks, US Execs Demand Taxpayer-Funded Bailouts Of Shareholders"

♪♬ You're a heartbreaker ♪♬

♪♬ Dream maker, curcuit braker.. ♪♬

♪♬ Don't you mess around with me ♪♬

Legged Robots That Balance by Marc Raibert. A book on Control Theory. This guy is the President of Boston Dynamics.

"@reNEWS_

A group of companies that include BP have signed a letter of intent to develop a 100MW electrolyser for the industrial-scale production of green hydrogen"

Link

Third Wave

Optimization for ML - great book. Do not care much about the ML label, they are doing opt for stats basically, the opt legend Wright is an author - good stuff.

Python code in scientific paper! 👍👍👍

Seeing more teachers putting up online lectures is great. This needs to be the norm from now on, but content is worked on offline, beforehand, and always available. No more wait for a content release. Every last vestige of synchronization should be removed from the system. No need for "immediate connection" with students, they wait for nothing, teachers don't rush, 'the lecture' is always on.

Some teachers might have an issue with that especially if they have a personality defect whereby through "standing up and delivering" in front of others they get their identity confirmed. We shouldnt create a whole bloody system around such deficiencies. A "consultant" for questions here and there is very different from creator / performer / grader of all things.

Junk Bond yields at 9.76% Daaaaaaaam!

Link

Why We Can't Afford the Rich by A. Sayer. ROFL. Great book title.

We might realize soon modern life that was kind of artificial and fake. Get up every day go to the same distant place to get paycheck.. It's weird.

I am loading up on Nano

I might hunt for working spots outside cafes which are closed but still, or parks, away from third parties of course. Have light camping equip, food already. Added coffe supply today and we r ready to knock out some content.

Feels like a timeout.

Que Cosa - Borrachacha #music

Link

"@mioana

Now for some hope: chloroquine, a first treatment for #coronavirus #covid19 shows promise in speeding up recovery and reducing contagion. It’s a widely available drug"

"@AlgoSniffer

After today, the fastest and largest drop from peak, ever, in the U.S. markets… History made: fastest 20% decline from peak ever for the S&P500"

🔥🔥🔥🔥

"A normal or up-sloped yield curve indicates yields on longer-term bonds may continue to rise, responding to periods of economic expansion. When investors expect longer-maturity bond yields to become even higher in the future, many would temporarily park their funds in shorter-term securities [buying them decreasing yield] in hopes of purchasing longer-term bonds later [selling them increasing yield, difference, the curve goes higher] for higher yields... In a rising interest rate environment, it is risky to have investments tied up in longer-term bonds".

Rising IR environment is obviously the result of growth, so "the curve" represents investors' overall view on growth and recession.

Link

It's true. Recreated.

"@carlquintanilla

MORGAN STANLEY: 'The yield curve’s track record remains perfect. It was never different this time'"

Link

Daaaaaamm

"@melissakchan

China appears to be kicking out ALL American reporters for NYTimes, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post. Including those in Hong Kong (no longer two systems eh?)"

Nice

"Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin: 'We are looking at sending checks to Americans immediately'"

Link

No problem for me I've gone DIY buzz cut.

"@carlquintanilla

MCCONNELL SAYS SENATE WILL NOT ADJOURN UNTIL IT PASSES BOLD MEASURES THAT GO BEYOND HOUSE ECONOMIC RELIEF BILL"

Hah. Building factories, trying to to look "so eager to work (risking disease to build u see, knowing full well it'd create drama)", is for the image "trying to meet demand bro". A media tactic, attempting to create an illusion of demand.

There is no demand. Another con by Mux.

Batteries are an inferior technology.

This is the completely wrong direction to take for our global goal to replace fossil fuels.

Worth of TSLA, the company is exactly zero.

The Chinese love him because guy is cancer. A bad effect on the Western world. Wouldn't you want your enemy to have cancer?

"Tesla told to shut down Fremont factory operations to help fight the pandemic"

Door Gunner. That has to be the ultimate position in the military. Like on a choppa in Vietnam...?

"@RaoulGMI

The really, really big problems in all of this are:

The Pension Crisis

The Doom Loop in credit markets

The structural strong Dollar Global Wrecking Ball

Everything else is just kindling, and this can not be solved easily, if at all with current system"

Another good metric - total market cap to GDP (idea from here)

Basically your stock market cannot be worth more than the economic value you are creating (GDP) - so anything above 100% for this metric is a bubble.

Investopedia: "To calculate the total value of all publicly traded stocks in the U.S., most analysts use The Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index, which is an index that represents the value of all stocks in the U.S. markets. The quarterly GDP is used as the denominator in the ratio calculation".

I belive this is also called the Buffett Indicator. Wilshire Index from FRED seems to capture it.

I don't know about anyone else, but post 2016 looks like a freaky bubble.

Daaaaaam! VIX saw 82 yesterday!

Was this the highest volatility ever?

import pandas_datareader.data as web
start=datetime.datetime(1920, 1, 1)
end=datetime.datetime(today.year, today.month, today.day)
df = web.DataReader("^GSPC", 'yahoo', start, end)['Adj Close']
vix = (df.pct_change()*100.0).rolling(20).std()*np.sqrt(252)
print (vix.argmax())

1929-11-20 00:00:00

OK.. 1929 was a little higher. As in the Great Crash 1929!

Rent is key. Restaurant, shop loses customers, can fire staff to fit to reduced demand but still has to pay the same amount of rent.

"@indiqicom

... I'd suggest a freeze on rents and mortgages to 1/3 of the UBI payment, no compound interest or penalties. People could keep paying down principal if they wanted. Getting money returns on money is pretty much the definition of 'non-essential services'"

"@percent48

[UK] I sit here close to tears. I spent 20 years building a business from scratch. We were a huge success. A week ago every customer closed or stop ordering. Today because no govt measures like France etc. We need to shed 60 staff. Maybe another 30 later. We might not make it"

Link

Some Nano crypto information - for wallet I use Atomic Wallet.

Anyone can get some initial N$ by going to a site, clicking on some captcha, sometimes not even that,

https://nano-faucet.org

https://www.freenanofaucet.com

enter ur receiving address and voila! Sites limit usage per address per day to prevent abuse, but this is a simple, efficient way to distribute some coin...

Atomic Wallet allows purchase of Nano (or any other coin) through a credit card from inside the app.

Nano requires no mining (a stupid idea anyway).

My only criticism of non-expanding monetary base notwithstanding (also true for all other coins), N$ looks very much like a third generation coin, much better than "Satoshi" Hal Finney's Bitcoin.

"@NoahShachtman

Imagine if Bloomberg had spent that $500 million on ventilators"

Right on

"@bcmerchant

Taking my mind off of the news by watching Good As It Gets, a movie about lives that are shattered by a cruel and inadequate healthcare system and that are then placed at the whims of a rich, narcissistic old racist"

Corporate Profits vs SP500 - we can see how they diverged from eachother big time since 2016. I didnt have to adjust scale on either metric bcz S&P index is calculated based on market cap anyway, which is intrinsically connected to a dollar value. The idea for the graph came from here.

"@NorbertElekes

France's president suspends payment of taxes, rent, water, gas, and electricity bills for companies during coronavirus outbreak"

The project described below is huge. California will store H2 "in vast underground caverns the size of the Empire State Building". It is known that salt caverns can store H2 for long periods of time. Cal will get renewable electricity from Utah, and other places through a few high-voltage lines, it will use them to generate H2. Why do that? Because renewable source can be intermittent (hence the need for storage).

How to go from H2 back to electricity again in order to distribute it within the state? Here LADWP will use gas turbines that take H2 as fuel, and generate electricity. Turbines will be built by Mitsubishi.

Article says "each salt cavern will hold 5,500 tonnes of H2, enough to fill up a million fuel cell vehicles, representing storage 84 times greater than a 1.2GWh battery, according to LADWP"

There is no way to reach this scale, in any shape or form, other than through renewable fuels.

"@maxbergmann

What. This cannot be. A ventilator maker could increase production by 500% but the USG hasn’t put in an order. No order, no ramp up of production. OMG"

No liquidity? After billions provided for repo?

Link

"@chrislhayes

From an ER doc in New York City on shift today:

'Today. Is. F’ing. Nuts. It kinda blew up here. And sending home lots of people undoubtedly positive because we don’t test on discharged patients. This has been spreading a long time.'"

"@RBReich

Big Pharma got language in the coronavirus bill preventing government from limiting their profits on any future vaccines, even though many of the same drug companies are receiving funding from the government to combat the pandemic

Even in a national emergency, Big Pharma wins"

😆😆😆😆 Get it? It's only Monday! 😆😆😆

The Fall

Go Mitt

"@nypost

Mitt Romney wants to give every American adult $1,000 over coronavirus"

Link

SP needs to go down to at least to 2000 for some fucking sanity to return.

"@SenTomCotton

I’m working on legislation to get cash stipends to affected workers and their families so they can buy food and pay the bills during this crisis, plus help to small and mid-sized businesses weather the storm"

@NorthmanTrader

How fragile must our financial system be that it requires zero rates, $700B in QE, $500B in repos not even 4 weeks from all time highs and still it is not enough?

"U.S. Airlines Spent 96% of Free Cash Flow on Buybacks" -- bloomberg.com

The system is melting down and the true outsider to it all won't get his chance to right some shit. Sad.

I got some Nano biiaaatch! 0.000917 to be exact. Feelin rich!

It was Lighting. Fucking. Fast. 👍👍🍺🍺

This is how you get adaptors. Install wallet, get some effin $$ right away.

"@ClementYChow

[From a covid19 patient] Basically had a low grade fever for a few days then a bad cough, that turned into respiratory failure. I came in and they had to put me on high flow oxygen (3 times normal)...hence ICU...

Important point: we really don’t know much about his virus. I’m young and not high risk, yet I am in [the] ICU with a very severe case"

"@ColinLeMahieu

A stagnant market of [BTC] holders speculating on the arrival of more holders won’t give it long term value"

Wow. Disdain. I can feel it from a distance

"Post-debate comment from Biden senior adviser Anita Dunn: 'It’s safe to say Vice President Biden showed up to a debate tonight and for two hours graciously [dealt] with a kind of protester who often shows up at campaign events, on live television.'”

Too much money printed (through credit for useless shit) can also cause yields to go to zero. This is bunch of f-ing money, where will it go? Some went to bonds of course (price up yields down).

"@JacksonStewal

Please don't listen to the people who didn't see any of this coming to understand where we are going. I assure you it's far more complicated than the virus"

Congrats. This is a good thing to do and good publicity. Wanna get attention? Punch the giant on the nose.

"Brave [creators of a private Web browser] has filed a formal GDPR complaint against Google for infringing the GDPR “purpose limitation” principle. Enforcement would be tantamount to a functional separation of Google’s business...

The GDPR purpose limitation principle requires that organizations internally ring-fence personal data and use it only for the narrow purpose it was collected for. Brave’s evidence shows that Google’s internal data free-for-all is unlawful"

Link

Why does L1-norm work so much better in so many problems than L2? #geek

Dude enough with these interventions. Maybe they made sense with a slower news cycle. The micro monkeying around has reached preposterous levels.

This is incorrect. The latest death rate 7.3% is much larger than 1 divided by 700,000 (chances of getting hit by lightning)

"It is more likely to get hit by lightning than dying of coronavirus"

This whole virus thing worked out for France gov it would put a stop to yellow vests for a while

Nothing in North Korea? Patients get shot before they are confirmed? !!

No covid19 in Madagascar? Really?

Papua New Guinea: on my map PNG island had no corona on the east (divided by straight line). The west had some color - so apparently the Western part is Indonesia, the eastern part is PNG, the country.

Even the econ morons finally figured this out, in their "field".. There is no rational, "economic man", the so-called Homo Economicus, at least not to the extent their broken models require.

Why do earlier primaries effect later primaries? Why did Clyburn's endorsement matter so much? Dont people intelligently judge policies, on their own, and decide?

No. People don't know shit. They are effected by others, especially leaders. Rightfully so too. Do I know about dentristy? Bee-keeping? No.

I'd like to go back to my weekly Tweet log releases. Stuff is happening way too fast.

Google is working a triage tool? So their algo will decide who lives and who dies?

Borders coming down in EU.. Good (EU can still survive this)

France 24 Eng is nice.. It's not hacky like a lot of US channels, less bombast.

This might be odd but 1st time Im seeing this

"YouTube's copyright filter takes down a video which is explaining copyright law"

Link

"@donmoyn

Lodi had the first Covid-19 case in Italy, and implemented a shutdown on Feb 23. Bergamo waited until March 8. Look at the difference"

"[C]an we talk about how UTTERLY AND COMPLETELY OBSCENE it is that the governments have to BEG journal publishers for access to research on #covid19 - the vast majority of which was funded by the public in the first place"

Link