Week 41
Fuel price fears would be playing into the contagion, fuel prices imply inflation, and inflation is the only risk for bond investors, they flee. Two factors combine.
"French bond contagion fears are rattling the euro... Euro hits 17-month low below $1.12, down over 4% this year"
FR gov debt skyrocketed and never came back down since covid. They gave out aid money but forgot to take that money back via tax, from the rich and corporations after covid.
"France faces record debt as €54B cuts [trigger] protests and school unrest.. Public debt is projected to reach 119.3% of GDP this year and 121.7% next year as the government seeks €54 billion in cuts, while teacher shortages, overcrowded classrooms and frozen wages drive fresh unrest"
"@dryad.technology@bsky.brid.gy
Have you noticed, lately, or noticed people around you commenting, that there just seems to be no money anymore. There's no money for companies to make the tv shows you like, the video games you like, the local diner you like shut down, no one you know can find a job.
Think about that in context of
@nicholasgrossman.bsky.social@bsky.brid.gy
AI is now the biggest investment in all of US history as a percentage of GDP.
Datacenter construction is up, all other construction is down.
'AI Is Squeezing Out the Rest of the Stock Market,' reported WSJ 2 days ago. "
"Plastic fused to coral rubble raises new concerns for ocean pollution"
Mead: "Mathematical elegance is important in a theory when it aids conceptual reasoning. It is destructive when it obscures otherwise accessible conceptual understanding."
BTW Tang was 18 years old, a student in Scott Aaronson's class, when she de-quantized the "exponentially fast quantum algorithm".
Ewin Tang: "[2018] We give a classical analogue to Kerenidis and Prakash's quantum recommendation system, previously believed to be one of the strongest candidates for provably exponential speedups in quantum machine learning...As a consequence, Kerenidis and Prakash's algorithm does not in fact give an exponential speedup over classical algorithms"
Carver Mead, Caltech: "Fields have no degrees of freedom of their own... They are simply bookkeeping mechanisms for the direct interaction of matter with other matter.. A 'photon' can be best viewed as a transaction between two atoms on the same light cone. Such a transaction requires an exquisite degree of phase matching between the quantum states of the two coupled atoms, and is therefore a rare event..
The transaction is itself a completely continuous process. When a transaction is initiated, it grows exponentially with time. This highly nonlinear evolution gives the appearance of an abrupt 'quantum jump' as the atomic wave functions 'collapse'"
Bender, The Guardian: "[E]rror-prone AI nearly sparked world war three this month.. While so many of us were focused on fictional superintelligent machines that we were told could hypothetically cause human extinction, however, there was a more serious story being reported.. A series of events almost got us to armageddon.. caused by government reliance on error-prone systems...
A CNN report published on 18 September, which hasn’t been verified by other major outlets, describes how the US 'almost started a war' with China, based on an intelligence report that claimed a Chinese ship was transporting components of nuclear weapons. Military personnel made plans to intercept the Chinese vessel.. It was only moments before executing on the plan that American officials further investigated the intelligence report and found that it had been generated with the use of a chatbot and contained erroneous information about the vessel’s contents."
"@jonny@neuromatch.social
I hadn't connected any accounts to muse until now, so I hooked up a test Instagram account just to check, and every connector allows read actions from binaries that can be called from within the VM by any process with no confirmation required. I'm not going to even bother reporting this because I am sure this is intended behavior - its just in plaintext in the skills manifests.
So all that shit about your credentials being in a secure vault does not matter because you just get free read access from within the VM anyway! This includes your Instagram DMs, slack messages, your emails, box and Dropbox files, google docs, google contacts, all your fucking apple health readings, your flightaware flight histories... What's fun is that some of the no confirmation needed actions are write actions too! You don't even need a clever exfil route, muse just gives it to you via your own connected accounts!"
Mitt and melon-headed punk became friends at Boston Consulting Group as corporate advisors.. That will open doors for you. The way to MIC's heart is through its biggest tool, Israel, their favorite money maker in the region.
It is interesting "they" archived those college video early on in the process, 2025/07/09, right around when Tucker spoke at TPUSA conference and Zionist donors freaked out, Operation Midnight Hammer had happened.. A crazy time. And that process has not ended.
I converted Candace Owens' Charlie Kirk timeline to markdown / html. There is good data in it.
Le Monde: "Persistent drought puts pressure on France's drinking water networks.. Water reserves supplying distribution systems across France remain under strain due to a significant rainfall deficit."
Government is removed from their worldview thanks to the post-Reagan neolib consensus. Government is absent when it comes to taxing them. They see politicians, people who control government as "things" to be bought, cajoled, strong-armed into doing whatever they want using their money. Government has been AWOL in the picture for a long time, both ideologically and managerially. Well, then you get these "vigilante billionaires" running around.. I don't blame the cunts becoming the cunts they've become. The system created them.
Effective Altruism is an offshoot of the current billionaire-centric system. The society allows some become uber rich, and now these people, thinking their situation normal even deserved, process the act of "doing good" through that undercurrent. They do not think in terms of government services anymore, as the government is removed from their worldview, they only think on individual terms, "my money", "my wealth". So when they want to "do good" they'll have to collect more money, more wealth, "do whatever it takes" so "they can help". They don't realize some lone actor acting on behalf of the people on a grand scale is not legitimate nor ethically viable.
Schiller P/E code addn.. second graph shows relation btw gap widening and crises.. Gap is widening again.. First graph shows valuations, not yet at dot com levels (but getting there).
Firstpost: "[Indian FM] Jaishankar says US has ‘deliberately become a lonelier power’, flags shift in global order.. Jaishankar on Sunday said that the global order is going through a major shift, with the United States undergoing a 'radical repositioning' and China continuing to gain influence
Reuters: "UK Green Party declares Zionism is racism... Green leader Polanski banned from entering Israel.. The Greens.. said they regarded Zionism as 'an ethnonationalist political project' and repeated their call for Britain's Labour government to end all arms trade with Israel."
You attack their refineries now your cities will get emptied out.. is this guy suffering from amnesia?
"Isolate" as in "made unliveable"
"Russia plans to focus its winter strikes on Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa and Lviv in an effort to isolate major Ukrainian cities from the rest of the country.. Zelenskyy said in an interview with the Financial Times"
"Putin said Thursday that Russia expects to seize the remaining Ukrainian-held areas of the Donetsk region much sooner than Ukraine and European countries anticipate."
"Marib governorate contains Yemen's most significant oil and gas fields, as well as a major power plant that historically supplied electricity to large portions of the country. Control over Marib means control over vital national revenue sources."
Saudis are allied with the Islah forces in Marib, usually SA fights against MB type movements. Strange bedfellows.
Marib is to the east of Houthi controllled areas, and could be a target of attack.
"In Yemen, the Muslim Brotherhood’s regional offshoot is organized as the Islah (“Reform”) Party [based in Marib]"
Taiz is as good as gone
#Yemen 10/02 - 10/05
"@dlakelan@mastodon.sdf.org
Fediverse, the social media system for 40+ year old people who built the world wide web and regret it."
Waves on the surface of the Sun. It looks liquidic
Nature: "[2018] Reimagining of Schrödinger’s cat breaks quantum mechanics — and stumps physicists.. In a multi-‘cat’ experiment, the textbook interpretation of quantum theory seems to lead to contradictory pictures of reality, physicists claim."
Ameriprise Financial: "In late March, CGS International pointed out that the ratio of margin debt to the M2 money supply had reached levels comparable to those in 2008 and was approaching the dot-com peak. Today, that level has been surpassed."
Yahoo Finance: "[09/19] Investors Borrowed $1.45 Trillion to Buy Stocks. Is the Market One Correction Away From a Margin-Call Avalanche?.. Margin debt hit 1.45 trillion in August, up 140% since 2022 and outpacing the S&P 500's 98% gain, which leaves the market carrying far more forced-selling risk."
100% agree
"I would not invest in LLMs because they have no moats"
#Eisman #LLM #TheBigShort
AI needs world models, i.e. an understanding of the outside / visual / physical space, because the human brain developed in that physical space, our thinking process heavily relies on it, it needs that physical reality. We do not think linguistically. Language is what comes out to communicate, but the basis of thought is non-textual. IMO even concepts that might not be directly representable in physical terms, are actually represented, mulled over as such. We say someone "gets angry", there is the increase of something, as if a bucket is "getting" filled, a degree of something rises, like a gauge moving. Or maybe an image of an angrier person comes to mind, all in physical space.
Marcus Beaufort: "DemystifySci's.. modeling light and gravity via physical filament networks shows how independent physics is converging on continuum medium mechanics. They are stripping away abstract 'empty space' reification in favor of a tangible substrate—yet they remain largely qualitative where your framework provides rigorous tensorial geometry"
Sentinel-2 images are taken at roughly the same local time, about 10:30 a.m., the satellites are sun-synched. So if Iran does something spectacular, as in ka-boom, and wants it to be caught by one of these satellites, they can do it around noon.
"Following a recession, which happen about every 7 years, investors will likely be cautious and will only borrow so much that they can still repay their loan: what Minsky the ‘hedge’ phase. Cautious investors are more likely to see returns, albeit low, and this will lead them to extend themselves further over time until they enter what Minsky called the ‘speculative’ phase. At this point borrowing increases, asset prices start to rise, investors enjoy healthy returns and exuberance builds until they enter the 'Ponzi' phase, where they can only finance their increasing debt repayments with further debt or by selling off assets in a market where prices are continually rising. Eventually scepticism prevails and the bubble bursts."
🚩 🚩 🚩 🚩 🚩 🚩 🚩 🚩 🚩 🚩 🚩 🚩 🚩 🚩 🚩 🚩 🚩 🚩
Woah.. Five customers accounted for 70% of NVidia's accounts receivable
NVidia 10-Q: "Note 7 - Supplemental Financial Statement Information.. Five direct customers accounted for 22%, 14%, 13%, 11%, and 10% of our accounts receivable balance as of July 26, 2026."
The Guardian: "Australia’s government inquiry process is supposed to help parliament make better decisions, hearing from experts and constituents alike. But Guardian Australia can reveal that the system is being flooded with AI-generated material, which is inventing studies and attributing nonexistent research to real academics and authors."
That was a great line
#Burnham #Thatcher