Week 41

You see 2-3% for sample sizes at about 1000. $SD(\hat{p}) = \sqrt{pq / n}$, Let's use equal votes $p = q = 0.5$, $n = 1000$, then 95% confidence interval means $2 \sqrt{(0.5)(0.5)/1000}$,

2*np.sqrt((0.5*0.5)/1000)*100

Out[1]: 3.162277660168379

That is the typical 2-3%. Multipoll daily sum gives me sample totals at about 30,000 sometimes.. Imagine that $n$ going way up, decreasing the interval.

Totaling increases sample size which decreases conf interval. Mine are thousandth of a percent, not at 2% or 3%.

I group polls by day, about two-three polls end each day, when you sum, the diversity of the sum increases, maybe one poll reached by telephone better, another via Web, the sum covers more ground.

I guess that makes sense from reciprocal standpoint... Soleimani was a big shot.

Politico: "Iran has a hit list of former Trump aides. The U.S. is scrambling to protect them."

Firstpost: "Google loses its final EU court appeal in antitrust shopping case, to pay €2.4 billion as fine"

Al-Monitor: "Lebanon facing 'catastrophic' situation as 600,000 displaced: UN"

Al-Monitor: "Wildlife populations plunge 73% since 1970: WWF"

Transport Topics: "Verne’s Cryo-Compressed Hydrogen Tech Nears Pilot Phase.. Instead of high-pressure gas or liquefied nitrogen, Verne’s solution is cold, compressed gas that offers greater density — and a lower cost of creating that increased density — than is available through liquefaction.

Verne’s system cools and compresses hydrogen to a 73 g/L internal density, a 33% improvement over liquid hydrogen and an 87% improvement over traditional 700-bar compressed gaseous hydrogen, such as that used in Nikola’s Class 8 Tre FCEV. Verne cools the gas to near minus 200 degrees Celsius and then stores it in a vacuum-sealed vessel"

"AIPAC running the whole show" narrative is useful for the complex, who hide behind a foreign culprit and continue running the show. That way, there is less pressure on the complex to change, they can remain in the shadows and Israeli lobby get all the attention. ISR is actually fine with that too, they look mean, "scary", they supposedly have the entire US system hostage, "West Asia fear us". Building on this same theater, the bought and paid for US political class can throw up their hands in mock frustration and say "we talk them they don't listen to us!" when in fact everyone is listening to the same boss. The boss wins all the time, American people lose whose resources, moral standing slowly diminishes.

The Israel Lobby is not more powerful than the military-industrial complex. America proper and the rich class it produced was wiping out entire races, enslaving people, triggering massive industrial wars abroad before the state of Israel was born. They are not gonna let bunch of Ziopunk fanatics run circles around them. So Israelis became pawns, an extension of US corporatocracy. Jews jumped from tragedy into genociding, once being on the receiving side of it, to one actively giving it while helping arms manufacturers cash in. SAD.

"Typical Microsoft! Disabling Windows Recall is Breaking File Explorer... Microsoft.. came up with a creepy move to spy on users with a new AI-powered feature called Recall. When active, the feature takes snapshots of the screen a user is working on, to then catalog it, and serve for later fetching as a scrollable timeline. It was supposed to be disabled by default, but, it appears, Microsoft has gone back to enabling it by default. The 24H2 release installs Recall on all PCs, not just Copilot+ PCs. But, that's not all. Recall also breaks an important Windows feature if someone tries to remove it"

♬ My b..h is bad and bougie ♪ They hate and the devil keep jumpin' me ♪

♬ Bankrolls on me keep me company ♬ I'm young and rich and plus I'm bougie ♪

TASS: "Russia ranks second main supplier of LNG to Spain in 9M 2024"

Politico: "FEMA spent nearly half its disaster budget in just 8 days"

WION: "Italy slams Israel over ‘shooting’ at UN Lebanon peacekeepers, terms it ‘intolerable’"

NYT: "Israel Fired on Peacekeepers in Lebanon, U.N. Says"

H2 Fuel News: "Toyota is set to showcase its groundbreaking portable hydrogen cartridges for the first time in Japan, October 15th to the 18th, at the Japan Mobility Bizweek event . These innovative cartridges are crafted to revolutionize the future of hydrogen energy by providing a swappable power source for next-generation fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs)"

"@daveleebbg@threads.net

Whenever I use LinkedIn I feel like I'm working for them"

CNBC: "DOJ indicates it’s considering Google breakup following monopoly ruling"

These are the MMT bozos.. see how taxing is downplayed.. The rich is happy with this narrative, that's why they allowed MMTers to have more of a voice than they deserved.

Kelton, The Deficit Myth: "The taxpayer, according to the conventional view, is at the center of the monetary universe because of the belief that the government has no money of its own. Therefore, the only money available to fund the government must ultimately come from people like us. MMT radically changes our understanding"

Dems have a shitlib problem.. They rebranded themselves as the party of "the educated" during the 90s, it did not play well with the working class. Lately they've made some improvements but may come short for the upcoming election. Wholesale expelling of Clintonite types is necessary. At the very least a Sister Souljah moment inflicted upon them.

Politico: "The latest union snub for Harris and Walz underscores a bigger problem for their campaign.. Even with a union member on the presidential ticket, Democrats are struggling to hold back a changing cultural tide.. Harris and Walz, despite their longtime labor ties, are struggling to win over key rank-and-file union members — part of a major political realignment away from the Democratic Party"

"@potus@threads.net

To everyone impacted by Hurricane Milton: I urge you stay inside and off the roads.

Downed power lines, debris, and road washouts are creating dangerous conditions.

Help is on the way, but until it arrives, shelter in place until your local officials say it’s safe to go out"

WaPo: "DeSantis urges skepticism of online claims about storm.. Florida Gov... warned people to be skeptical of misinformation and inflammatory claims about the response to Hurricane Milton, including a post on X claiming FEMA would prevent people from returning to their homes. DeSantis said he would ensure Floridians have the right to return home after the storm, except in rare emergency circumstances such as an active rescue mission.

'Be careful about the nonsense that just gets circulated, and just know that the more titillating it is, the more likely somebody is making money off of it,' DeSantis said. 'They don’t really give a damn about the well-being and safety of the people that are actually in the eye of this storm.'"

"@jonny@neuromatch.social

i am ending this computer complaint thread in the same place i have before. if you're telling me the only way to use your software is to run a docker container, what you're telling me is that it's broken."

"@LilahTovMoon@tech.lgbt

.. DoorDash: our non-employee workers are replaceable, your food isn't"

#DoorDash

Yahoo Finance: "The sovereign wealth fund of Saudi Arabia, chaired by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has initiated the formation of Energy Solutions.. This entity will focus on financing green hydrogen power production, a move that aligns with the kingdom's economic diversification efforts... According to the sources, the launch of the new company, expected to be announced soon, will see former Thyssenkrupp Uhde CEO Cord Landsmann at the helm"

The EU: "On 30 April 2024, seven European projects were selected for EU financial support in the Innovation Fund’s pilot hydrogen auction (IF23 Auction)...

The selected projects are located in four European countries:

Spain (Hysencia and Catalina);

Portugal (Grey2green II and MP2X);

Finland (eNRG Lahti);

and Norway (Skiga).

The Innovation Fund will support these projects with a fixed premium payment per kilogram of certified and verified renewable hydrogen produced. This means that no payments will be made before projects start production. From the time of the grant agreement signature, the projects have up to five years to start producing renewable hydrogen.

The total amount of support comes to EUR 694,521,237 and will be disbursed over a timespan of ten years. The individual grants range from EUR 8 million to EUR 245 million for installations with a megawatt electric (MWe) capacity from 35 to 500 MWe.

Renewable hydrogen produced will serve many sectors, such as maritime, heavy duty transport, agriculture, or in the production of e-methane and e-methanol"

H2 Central: "Russia's first hydrogen-powered vessel, named Ecobalt, is scheduled to undergo sea trials this month, local media reported on Monday. The vessel, designed as a 12-passenger recreational boat, is equipped with an electrochemical generator powered by hydrogen fuel, said Oleg Savchenko, general director of the Krylov State Research Center (KSRC)"

F24: "US judge says Google must open Android phones to rival app stores"

Eric Adams definitely sounds like Tracy Morgan

CNBC: "The Strait of Hormuz is widely recognized as a vital oil transit chokepoint. Situated between Iran and Oman, the waterway is a narrow but strategically important channel that links crude producers in the Middle East with key markets across the world. For many analysts, an event where there is a blockade to flows via the Strait of Hormuz is seen as a worst-case scenario — one that could prompt oil prices to climb far above $100 a barrel"

#DemocracyNow #TaNehisiCoates

[-]

Anatolian Agency: "A British journalist recently arrested in the UK believes he was targeted for his reporting on Israel’s war on Gaza, warning that this is an attempt to set a precedent to silence all critical voices. Richard Medhurst was arrested at London’s Heathrow Airport on Aug. 15 on charges under Section 12 of the UK’s Terrorism Act of 2000. Medhurst was held at a police station for over 24 hours, where he said officers accused him of 'allegedly expressing an opinion or belief that is supportive of a prescribed organization'.. 'They made it very clear I’m not allowed to speak to anyone... You’re sitting in a prison cell.. you’re there for like, one hour, five hours, six hours, 12 hours, and you still don’t know why they want you there,' said Medhurst."

It's sad the crimes of humanity inflicted by a man's state brings a man despising that state. Peled grew up w/ that Zio shit, and he is a general's son. Yet here he is, embarrassed of being an Israeli.

Miko Peled doesn't fool around anymore, he is going for the throat. "Israel will cease to exist in the future will be replaced by a Palestinian state". "If you want Israel to negotiate, you have to put sanctions on them"

Financial Post: "Saudi Arabia Said to Tee Up Multibillion-Dollar Bet on Hydrogen"

H2 Central: "Regional heavyweights UAE and Saudi Arabia are working to build a strong base for producing and exporting green hydrogen as a clean energy source"

Gary Stevenson: "The basic fact is, if you own a ton of British assets, be that companies that seel to British consumers, British homes, British debt, British land, British natural resources - your money comes from Britain. And that would be the same if I was talking about the US, Australia, Germany, or France. You exist in a country that has real assets. Those assets are owned by somebody. And whenever you use those assets, you pay that person and the money comes from you. This is the big reason why the very richest people in society are actually the easiest technically to tax. If I'm a teacher or a lawyer or a doctor, I can go to Dubai, to Singapore, and I can work in those countries and I generate the money from my work. If I'm rich and I own your country, whether I leave or not my money still comes from you, and I'm the least mobile person in the world from a tax perspective"

Nolan Hahn: "These short haul flights are a policy failure, this flight could easily be replaced by a train"

[-]

Col. McGregor: "Our government is currently owned by the Israel Lobby, they control the Congress, they control the Senate they control the House, they have a great deal of money behind them. And that money does not come from overseas, [it] comes from within the United States from wealthy donors that support Israel.. If you stand up to them they put all of the money at their disposal to elect your opponent, whoever that is.. they are very open-minded, they don't care about Democrats and Republicans, they just want people who are going to do whatever they say, and that means support whatever Israel and Mr Netanyahu wants. That's the situation, so we don't really control our government at this point, and if you look at the most strident advocates for the destruction of Arab life, Muslim life.. or Iranians or anybody else, those people are rewarded handsomely with enormous amounts of money for their reelection campaigns to keep their seats, and ultimately to benefit in the private sector from enormously lucrative deals that make them millionaires. It's no secret that most people that come to the House do not show up as millionaires, but they sure leave that way"

Why does it make sense to expect common sense from fundamental theories? Nature has self-similarity, therefore we should expect our intuition in the big world to also apply in the small.

Another point Joss Whedon figured out, can't do Hulk too angry / monster-like, he has to be somewhat clumsy, buffonish, little childish. Whedon is a smart director.

I bet they chose Ed Norton as the Hulk in earlier movies bcz he'd previously played two big roles where his personality changed, as in bipolar. But in both those cases the change was a surprise. For Hulk everyone knows Bruce Banner is Hulk. In that case studio should've picked someone who the audience could see as Hulk, even in normal form. You cant use a tall, lanky actor, have to choose somewhat husky, heavier built person. That's why Ferigno and Ruffolo worked out, Norton didn't. The stories weren't great either in case of fails.

New York Intelligencer: "You Are Not a Parrot. And a chatbot is not a human... [LLM] models are built on statistics. They work by looking for patterns in huge troves of text and then using those patterns to guess what the next word in a string of words should be. They’re great at mimicry and bad at facts. Why? LLMs.. have no access to real-world, embodied referents. This makes LLMs beguiling, amoral, and the Platonic ideal of the bullshitter, as philosopher Harry Frankfurt, author of On Bullshit, defined the term. Bullshitters, Frankfurt argued, are worse than liars. They don’t care whether something is true or false. They care only about rhetorical power — if a listener or reader is persuaded"

[-]

US certainly was not defending democracy in Ukraine, they were defending corporate interests.. After RU intervention they briefly wanted things to go back to what they were, US proconsuls leading bunch of UA oligarchs while the country gets plundered as Russia was during the 90s, but it didn't work.

TASS: "Kiev, allies start to realize need for negotiations with Russia — FT"

Politico: "US disaster programs are teetering. Milton could topple them. Federal relief, loan and flood insurance programs face mounting costs and questions about their ability to pay as Hurricane Milton spirals toward Florida's Gulf Coast"

TASS: "Trump criticizes $300-bln aid to Ukraine amid hurricane in US"

#Frontline #UA #RU 10/01 - 10/08

[-]

Analysis..? The bought and paid for political class does not need analysis, they need Benjamins. War is good for business. Happy donors make happy contributors.

Beinart, The Guardian: "The mainstream media has failed us after 7 October.. Not only did they mostly ignore Israel’s denial of Palestinian freedom, but also the contradictions in Israel’s military strategy.. In an alternate universe, the American media would have answered 7 October by putting Jehad Abusalim on speed dial. Abusalim, who runs the Washington DC office of the Institute for Palestine Studies, is not only from Gaza, but also a Hebrew speaker who is completing a PhD in history, Hebrew and Judaic studies... Unfortunately, the American media never gave Abusalim a megaphone. He appeared on network and cable television only once in the six months following 7 October"

Railway Supply: "Deutz presented its latest hydrogen engine at InnoTrans 2024, marking a significant step toward sustainable transport.. The hydrogen engine TCG 7.8 H2, with a 200 kW power output, operates with low noise and offers high efficiency. It is designed for use in various industries, particularly in railway transportation"

Russell Brand among conservatives is hysterical, when he starts chewing out the scene it is even funnier, like a comedy movie of some kind with a "fish out of the water" scenario.

Good for the Nobel committee. If they rewarded crooked science, their reputation would be in trouble (it still partly is for allowing the economists use the word 'Nobel' in their own awards that has nothing to do with Nobel)

Advanced Science News: "The dramatic story behind general relativity’s Nobel Prize snub.. [Commitee member] Gullstrand aimed at defusing those aspects of Einstein’s theory that called for 'an overhaul of the commonsense foundations of mechanics.'.. According to Gullstrand that which remained once Einstein’s errors and unproven assertions were eliminated could best be treated successfully by classical mechanics. He refers to literature written by Einstein’s supporters as being subjective, delivering unsound and insufficiently proven claims from a 'cult of believers.' 'Belief' rather than evidence-based scientific reasoning recurs several times in Gullstrand’s discussions of those who accept Einstein’s theories.

The British eclipse data, according to Gullstrand, are useless. Even if the minute bending of starlight actually received confirmation, that would not constitute proof of Einstein’s 4D space-time... Gullstrand refers extensively to [aether-physicist] Bjerknes’ effort to account for the deflection using classical physics. In the end, Gullstrand asserts that Einstein’s theories are devoid of any real content and have no relationship with physical reality; they lacked 'the significance for physics for which an awarding with a Nobel Prize can come into question'

The committee accepted Gullstrand’s evaluation"

[-]

Einstein did not win the Nobel for relativity. He won it for the paper on the photoelectric effect (the finding that would ironically be a key milestone towards quantum mech with which his later theories would fail to reconcile).

🤣

"Evolution Expert: Aliens are Future Humans & UFOs are Time Machines"

Asia Minor ("Turkey") has an indigenous fighter plane? How does it compare to others.. It uses F110 GE Turbofan engine.. same engine of F-16. The engine is not built locally, a big disadvantage. Engine not optimized for stealth, no thrust vectoring. Absence of thrust vectoring alone disqualifies it for 5th gen of course. Another downside, too expensive, 100 mil dollars a pop. Tigga basically built a more costly F-16. If it goes against any other 5th gen I suspect Kaan would get its ass handed to it. But the design / manufacturing of the prototype must have been good experience, surely the plane will improve in the future. Building more stuff locally is a good thing.

#TaskAndPurpose

I am convinced one of the reasons Biden picked Kamala as VP was Kamala being as awkward as he was, so Biden would not stand out.

Harris can be awkward but it is now the age of the awkward. Biden is an obtuse, awkward guy, Trump too is off the cuff, unscripted, talking outside the norm of retail politician (he likely started the trend but the time was ripe for it). Smooth suave shmoozers like Clinton, W, Obama could not get it done, obtuse characters must've become a thing as a reaction.

Vivaldi: "Why [an alternate browser] Vivaldi won’t follow the current AI trend?.. Web browsers are integrating the current AI trend with Large Language Model (LLM) functionality... LLMs are just a model of what a written language looks like.. [there are..] fundamental issues: Plausible-sounding lies.. Since the text that an LLM is built out of originates in large part from the Internet in general, that means that a lot of it is complete trash"

I hope he runs.. I'd support Cuomo for Mayor.

Axios: "Andrew Cuomo eyes NYC mayor job"

H2 Fuel News: "Volvo to Begin Testing Hydrogen Combustion Engines in Trucks by 2026.. Volvo Trucks is set to make significant strides towards its net zero emissions goal with the development of trucks powered by hydrogen combustion engines. Announced earlier this year during the ACT Expo in Las Vegas, Volvo revealed plans to commence on-road tests with these innovative trucks by 2026, aiming for a commercial launch towards the end of this decade"

Just Auto: "Stellantis extends hydrogen powered vans to UK.. Vauxhall brand to commence trials of Vivaro Hydrogen... Stellantis has announced that the first customer trials of the Vauxhall Vivaro Hydrogen commercial vehicle in the UK are underway... Already sold in LHD markets by Opel, Vauxhall’s sister brand.. Stellantis says Vivaro Hydrogen is the first commercially available production hydrogen van"

South China Morning Post: "IEA - China leads world in green hydrogen equipment making"

None of my ex's live in Texas

Elektrek: "Hell froze over in Texas – the state will connect to the US grid for the first time via a fed grant.. The projects will improve transmission congestion and resilience, especially as the country faces more extreme weather events"

ProPublica: "We Reported on Nike’s Extensive Use of Private Jets. The Company Just Made It Harder to Track Them... Since our story, the company has added its planes to a popular Federal Aviation Administration program that makes it harder to see where they’re going"

For people starting out in theoretical psy the direction is clear, ditching nearly all of the recent theories, ignore GR, Copenhagen interp of QM, start with SED which reproduces QM, QED without the added baggage of bizarre antology ("wave collapse", cats being dead or alive etc). Connect that with ZPF and derive gravity. There is no need for a grand project of "unification" because said approach already unifies everything. Key people to follow are Sakharov, Dicke, Jean-Pierre Vigier, Van Flandern, Putoff, Tim Boyer, Ana Maria Cetto, Luis de la Peña - the last two being the current torchbearers of stochastic electrodynamics.

I am sure behind closed doors more reasonable solutions are being proposed other than just pushing Ukraine more into more war of atrition which it will certainly lose.

After leaving his post, Stolt can speak more freely

FT: "[Ex-NATO chief Stoltenberg said] 'Ukraine still has to decide [when to negotiate]. But we need to make the conditions that make it possible for them to sit down with the Russians and get something which is acceptable... something where they survive as an independent nation.'.. I ask what he would propose to Zelenskyy. He demurs, then suggests a historical comparison. 'Finland fought a brave war against the Soviet Union in 1939. They imposed much bigger costs on the Red Army than expected,' he says. 'The war ended with them giving up 10 per cent of the territory. But they got a secure border.'

Tunisia was the last democracy to come out from the Arab Spring... now that's gone too.

Twitter Revolution!

The Guardian: "Arab spring dreams in ruins as Tunisia goes to polls against backdrop of repression"

Previous Iran retaliation was purposefully unsuccessful, Iran wanted to show it could cross the line if it wanted, but also wanted to telegram restraint, so the attack demonstrated some capability, not much, the arrival was announced loudly, clearly. The last attack demonstrated more capability.

No room for criticism.. Zionists are always out for blood.

BBC: "Netanyahu says Macron's call for arms embargo is 'a disgrace'"

F24: "Macron criticises Israel on Gaza, Lebanon operations.. Macron called Saturday for a halt on arms deliveries to Israel for use in Gaza"

WION: "PM Modi's talks with Putin and Zelensky mark new phase of dialogue: EAM Jaishankar"

TASS: "China ready to strengthen strategic coordination with North Korea — Xi Jinping"