God

Is there a creator?

Let $F$ be the event something appears organized, and $G$ that there is a creator. Goal is trying to prove the probability $P(G|F) > P(~G|F)$; the tilde sign means "not", the negation of the event, the | sign means "given", i.e. $P(A|B)$ is probability of A given B, that is, assuming B happened, what's the likelihood of A. Using the Bayes Theorem,

$$ P(G|F) = P(F|G)P(G) / P(F) $$

$$ P(~G|F) = P(F|~G)P(~G) / P(F) $$

Geeks can notice the trick there; we flipped the probabilities, so we could start from something we know. Everyone agrees $P(F|G) > P(F|~G)$, that is, "given" there is a creator, the probability something appears organized is more likely, than given not. As for the rest, we must take $P(G) = P(~G)$ because that is apriori belief, believing something from get-go. If $P(G)$ is not equal to $P(~G)$ you are a bigot.

Well, then $P(F)$ is the same on both equations, $P(G)$ equals to $P(~G)$, with all else being equal and since $P(F|G) > P(F|~G)$, then we must conclude $P(G|F) > P(~G|F)$.

But I also accept there is also a form of courage in the way atheists say "I don't know for sure, and I will remain in this non-knowing state until I do know for sure". This can be commendable. We've only shown the probability is higher for one case than not, noone can show existence of God anything with probability 1 (100% confidence).